NCAA Basketball Picks: #6 Michigan State Will Roll Over Ohio State

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, February 23, 2016 12:33 PM GMT

Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans head to the Nuthouse and Value Center Arena in Columbus, Ohio on Tuesday night to face The Buckeyes. Let's review the NCAA basketball odds.

#6 Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Marc Loving and Ohio State (18-10, 10-5 Big Ten) welcome Denzel Valentine and now #6-ranked (AP) Michigan State (22-5, 9-5 Big Ten) to Value Center Arena in Columbus on Tuesday night for this Big Ten Conference showdown. NCAA basketball odds makers have opened up visitors Michigan State as solid 6-point (Bookmaker) favorites here in the Ohio state capital with the Total (Points) for this game opening up at 139 (Bookmaker).

 

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State (5-3-0 ATS on Road, 5-3 SU on Road) and legendary Head Coach Tom Izzo are getting Tournament-ready at the right time and have W5 of 6 games heading into this contest at Ohio State. In their last game on Thursday, Michigan State ended a 7-game Wisconsin win streak by topping the Badgers, 69-57 in East Lansing (MSU -9½, 135, Under) as superstar G Denzel Valentine had 24 points and 10 rebounds, Bryn Forbes had 17 points and Eron Harris 10 points for the Spartans who moved from all the way up from 8th place into a four-way tie for 4th place in the Big Ten Conference with the victory. Even though this game is in Columbus, Ohio State is down this season but knowing the Home team has W8 straight in the series and that the opening line has Sparty as legitimate and healthy 6-point chalks, Michigan State (12/1 to win NCAA Championship, Coral) is the obvious choice here and may be worth using as a parlay element on the Moneyline when that market opens up. With a Starting 5 of Valentine (19.7 ppg), F’s Deyonta Davis (61.7% FG) and Matt Costello (8.2 rpg) and Harris and Forbes at G spots, the Spartans will be a hard team to beat from this point out and despite all of the love that fellow Conference-mates Iowa (#8), Indiana (#18) and Purdue (#20) have received, elite teams from the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 aren’t going to be afraid of drawing the Hawkeyes, Hoosiers or the Boilermakers whereas if they get Michigan State (79.4 AF-63.6 AA), the Fear will be immediate. Injury-wise for the Spartans, F Kenny Goins (Knee) is listed as Out until mid-March.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes
In their last game against Nebraska in Lincoln on Saturday night, Ohio State (13-4 SU at Home, 10-5-1 ATS at Home) and 12th-year Head Coach Thad Matta gutted out a 65-62 OT win as JaQuan Lyle (7 rebounds) scored 6 of his team-high 19 points in the OT session to lead the Buckeyes to the victory. Ohio State starters Marc Loving (15 points), Jae’Sean Tate (15 points, 12 rebounds), Keita Bates-Diop (16 points) and Trevor Thompson (10 rebounds) were all in double-digit scoring against Nebraska but the Buckeyes Bench had o Points in 54 minutes of play and if Ohio State (250/1 to win NCAA Championship, at Bet365) is going to have any chance of beating 6th-ranked Michigan State here on Tuesday night everyone will have to contribute and everything will have to go right, as the Point Spread reveals. Heading in here, The Ohio State (70.9 AF-66.1 AA) has no Injuries to report except maybe to their Pride.

 

Recent Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
In the L10 meetings in this series, Michigan State holds a slight 5-4-1 ATS edge—the Home team has W8 straight and MSU is 6-4 SU over those 10 games—but the Spartans have covered the L3 straight ATS, those just barely by 3, ½ and 1½ points in those L3 meetings meaning that the oddsmakers have done a fabulous job here. Also, the Under is 6-4 ATS in those 10 meetings although the Over has got the money at the betting window 3 of the L4 times. And analyzing the fairly big (MSU minus) 6 they are hanging on this game is sort of an indictment of how far Ohio State has fallen of late while good ole Sparty keeps marching right along and is the only team from the Big 10 Conference others honestly fear at this moment in Time. Thanks Mr. Izzo. Trend-wise, Ohio State is 35-17-2 ATS the L54 games it has played on Tuesdays while the Home team has W8 straight in this series but Michigan State is 9-3 ATS the L12 meetings here in Columbus and this is a Trend with some meat-on-the-bone as it weighs an annual game in the same place against the closing Point Spread.

In the end when they match up on the floor, Michigan State (Ken Pomeroy ranking #3, .9449 Pythagorean Winning Percentage) will have a distinct advantage over Ohio State (Ken Pomeroy ranking #62, .75618 Pyth) and is still trying to snake up the Big Ten standings, as meaningless as that may be. The Buckeyes should get out to a 5-to-11-point lead by Halftime and then push it out some in the 2nd Half, cruising to a comfortable double-digit Road win due to the combined efforts of the talented Valentine, Costello, Davis, Harris and Forbes. Some teams peak at just the right time and jel to deal with the rigors of their Conference tournaments and March Madness and Michigan State is one of them and Head Coach Izzo is the main reason why. And the fresh (Monday) No. 6 ranking may actually be a little high in the big scheme of things, but if only one school deserves to be in any Top 10 list at this point in the season from this Conference, it’s the Spartans and Valentine—a 6-5, 22-year-old from JW Sexton High School in Lansing—is truly one of the top 5 players in College Basketball this season. Take Michigan State on your NCAA basketball picks.

 

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Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 Ohio State 65
NCAA Basketball Picks: Michigan State -6 & Michigan State 1st Half
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker