NCAA Basketball Pick on Wyoming, Nevada to sneak ‘over’

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 17, 2015 6:37 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

 



There is naturally a low posted total in a matchup of two of the lower scoring teams in the country Tuesday night, but perhaps the total is a bit too low thus giving some value to the ‘over’ when the Wyoming Cowboys (20-6, 4-5 away) pay a visit to the Nevada Wolf Pack (8-16, 6-6 home) at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV at 10:00 ET in a game available at nevadawolfpack.tv.

The posted total at BetOnLine is 120½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.


Not Assured NCAA Bid with 20 Wins
Wyoming is quietly at 20-6 already and 9-4 in the Mountain West Conference, leaving it one-half game behind the 10-3 San Diego State Aztecs in the conference standings. But while San Diego State looks like a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament with an identical 20-6 overall mark, the Cowboys still have work to do as they remain unranked in the polls and are ranked just 124th on the Pomeroy Ratings.

Nevada has no post-season aspirations short or being the upset NCAA Basketball pick winners in the Mountain West Tournament as the Wolf Pack are a dismal 8-16 overall and just 4-8 inside the Mountain even after upsetting New Mexico here at home as 4½-point underdogs in their last game on Saturday. Nevada has played a bit better at home but it is still only at the .500 mark in Reno at 6-6 straight up.


Nevada Home Games Higher Scoring
Nevada has been done in by ranking 304th in the country in points scored with 62.0 per game, and it is not as if the Wolf Pack have made up for it with shutdown defense as the 65.9 points per game they are allowing ranks 163rd in the land. Furthermore, the Nevada scoring average drops to 60.8 points vs. Division I competition, while the points against remains constant at 65.9.

Take note however that overall combined average vs. Division I of 126.7 points is still over six points higher than this posted total, and Nevada home games inside Division I have been even a bit higher scoring. The Wolf Pack are averaging 65.0 points at home vs. fellow teams at that level while allowing 62.8, meaning that their DI games in Reno have averaged 127.8 total points.

Nevada is certainly not a good shooting team but it does get a lot of opportunities for easy put-backs, ranking sixth in the entire country in offensive rebounding percentage at 40.8 percent smashing the national average of 31.1 percent. Those things add up in games with posted totals this low.


Wyoming Better Offensively than Given Credit
Wyoming is a team that tends to win ugly, simultaneously ranking 307th in the country in points scored with 61.9 per game and an amazing sixth in points against at 55.1 per contest! However, the Cowboys are not as bad as their scoring average offensive and not nearly as good defensively as their points allowed suggest, as their game scores are kept artificially down due to ranking 345th out of 351 Division I schools in tempo rating at 59.3 possessions per game.

The truth of the matter is that Wyoming is capable of scoring more points when drawn in to a faster pace, as the Cowboys are actually a very good 44th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 52.6 percent. For evidence of this, look no further back than their game on Saturday when they beat San Jose State by a 77-60 score.
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Now the Wyoming defensive numbers are indeed good with the Cowboys ranking 81st in defensive efficiency and 93rd in effective field goal percentage allowed at 46.8 percent, but those numbers do not exactly put the defense in the “elite” class, so again the 55.1 points per game allowed is misleading.


8-2 Cowboys’ ‘over’ Run
Finally, because Wyoming totals are often deflated due to the raw stats, the Cowboys enter this contest riding an 8-2 ‘over’ run! On the other side, Nevada is on a 6-1 ‘over’ run the ‘over’ is 5-2 in all Wolf Pack home games that have had posted totals this season.

Look for those patterns to continue with Wyoming and Nevada going ‘over’ another deflated total in Reno on Tuesday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Wyoming, Nevada ‘over’ 120½ (-110)