NCAA Basketball Pick: Wyoming Cowboys -9½ over Fresno State

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, February 16, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 16, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Wyoming is seeking revenge after playing its worst game of the year at Fresno State earlier where the Cowboys shot 24.0 percent for the game, which won’t happen again in Laramie.

Look for a safe double-digit win by the revenge minded home team Saturday when the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-15, 3-8 away) pay a visit to those Wyoming Cowboys (17-7, 11-3 home) at the Arena-Auditorium in Laramie, WY at 4:00 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Wyoming as a deserved big favorite for this contest with the current line at -9½ with odds of -108.

These teams played one of the ugliest basketball games played anywhere earlier this season when Fresno State upset Wyoming 49-36 back in Fresno in a game that probably set the sport back 60 years!

That game was basically an anomaly just about anyway you look at it, as not only did one of the worst shooting teams in the country in Fresno State shoot 51.5 percent in the game, albeit on only 33 field goal attempts, but Wyoming made only 12 field goals the entire game on 50 attempts for an ungodly 24.0 percent shooting percentage. To add to the insanity, the Cowboys made only seven two-point field goals in 23 attempts in the contest for 30.0 percent.

That bears mentioning because the Cowboys rank 20th in the country in two-point shooting percentage at 53.0 percent, so you can bet that they are chomping at the bit for this opportunity to make up for that shooting atrocity vs. the Bulldogs here at home, where they are 11-3 on the season.

Now granted, Wyoming is just 3-7 in Mountain West play while going 14-0 in non-conference games, but besides the one loss at Fresno, the other six conference losses have all come to teams in the top half of the standings of a conference that is ranked fourth as a whole on the Pomeroy Ratings, ahead of the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC!

Perhaps more importantly, not only do the Cowboys almost always beat the weak teams that they face, but they often do it soundly as they are 27-11 ATS in its last 38 games vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400. So this is a team that is probably no as good as its record due to a weak schedule, but at least it deserves credit for taking care of the teams that it is supposed to.

As for Fresno State, while the shooting percentage in the first meeting was out of the ordinary for the Bulldogs, the 49 points scored were unfortunately not that unusual and this is a team that has averaged 57.2 points on an atrocious 38.3 percent shooting on the road.

The Bulldogs are literally one of the worst shooting teams in the country, as out of 347 Division I teams, they are ranked 325th in effective field goal percentage and 344th in two-point shooting at a mere 39.2 percent.

So the bottom line here is that Fresno State might score just a few points more than it did in the first meeting while Wyoming should have a more “normal” shooting effort at home where it figures to dominate inside this time with its two-point shooting, so look for a big double-digit win by Wyoming on Saturday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Wyoming -9½ (-108)

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