NCAA Basketball Pick: Wyoming Cowboys +4 over Air Force

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 26, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Wyoming looks to have value as a dog while trying to avenge a home loss to Air Force as this game should to be played a snail’s pace and Wyoming should shoot better than last time.

The road underdog appears to have inherent value Tuesday night in a game that figures to be played at an extremely slow pace as those Wyoming Cowboys (18-9, 6-5 away) pay a visit to the Air Force Falcons (15-10, 11-2 home) at Clune Arena in Colorado Springs, CO at 9:00 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The point spread at Bodog has Wyoming as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +4 with odds of -105.

First of all, we totally get that Wyoming enters this game on a 1-8 ATS skid, but keep in mind that most of those losses have come vs. the upper echelon teams in the Mountain West Conference, such as the Cowboys’ last two blowout losses vs. San Diego State and UNLV following their last victory, which came against one of the conference underlings in Fresno State.

They are now back in their own element facing an Air Force team that is more comparable to their talent level, and they are also playing with revenge after getting upset at home by the Falcons 57-48 on January 26th as eight-point favorites.

The plodding tempo of that game is nothing new as both of these teams play at a slow pace, especially Wyoming which is ranked 336th out of 347 Division I teams with a tempo rating of 60.8 possessions per game. However, the Cowboys normally shoot the ball quite well at the end of those possessions, which was certainly not the case on the first meeting in Laramie.

Wyoming ranks a very good 41st in the country in two-point shooting at 51.3 percent, but they went a miserable 17-for-51, 33.3 percent overall from the field in that first meeting! That was certainly an anomaly though so look for a much better shooting percentage tonight. Of course that may not result in Wyoming reaching the 60s, but that is only because of its pace as this contest has all the earmarks of the first team reaching 50 points winning the game.

Wyoming’s poor shooting was not the only anomaly of that first meeting either, as the Air Force defense has actually been an issue all season. The Falcons rank 178th in the country in defensive efficiency, a pathetic 295th in effective field goal percentage allowed and an even worse 328th in two-point defense at 54.1 percent! Thus, assuming that Wyoming reverts back to a “normal” shooting game tonight, the Cowboys should do some damage closer to the basket.

It also helps that Air Force is a very average 161st in defensive turnover percentage, so do not look for the Falcons to disrupt Wyoming’s methodical offense much as the Cowboys run the shot clock and work for the best shot.

The combination of limited possessions and expected better shooting than the first go-around should be enough for Wyoming to cover the NCAA Basketball odds as underdogs on Tuesday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Wyoming +4 (-105)

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