NCAA Basketball Pick: UC Davis Aggies vs. CS Fullerton Titans

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 13, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Just because the bottom two teams in the Big West are meeting when UC Davis visits CS Fullerton, it does not mean that there is no value to be found Thursday.

The road underdog has been a covering machine lately and that may continue in Big West play Thursday night when those UC Davis Aggies (8-16, 1-9 away) pay a visit to the CS Fullerton Titans (7-15, 5-4 home) at Titan Gym in Fullerton, CA at 10:00 ET.

The point spread at Bet365 has UC Davis as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +5 with odds of -110.

UC Davis may be just 8-16 overall and 1-9 on the road, but the Aggies may be playing their best basketball all season right now as they come in on a 5-1 ATS run, and that includes going 2-0 ATS in their last two road games. This stretch began with a 69-61 win at home over this CS Fullerton team as a 2½-point home underdog. The Aggies are still just in eighth place in the Big West with a 3-6 conference mark.

The Titans are heading in the opposite direction as they are just 1-6 in their last seven games straight up, and they have been burning the money of their supporters are they are on a dismal 2-9 ATS run in their last 11 contests. Fullerton is now ninth and last in the Big West at 2-6.

UC Davis is not showing the same improvement under Coach Jim Les this season that it showed from two seasons ago to last year, when the Aggies went from 5-26 overall and 3-13 inside the Big West in 2011-12 to 14-17 and 9-9 in conference last season, at least not yet, although it is not yet inconceivable that Davis can reach the .500 mark in the conference again if it continues it recent improvement.

The Aggies are now up to second in the Big West during conference play in effective field goal percentage at a very good 53.1 percent, and they are actually above average in all of their games in that department at 50.9 percent vs. a national average of 49.5 percent. It helps that Davis is above average in both three-point shooting (35.3 percent) and two-point shooting (49.5 percent).

That makes for a nice matchup vs. a Fullerton team that ranks 197th in defensive efficiency and 199th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and UC Davis also figures to win the turnover battle as the Aggies are turning the ball over only 17.6 percent of the time vs. a national average of 18.5 percent while the Titans are 251st in defensive turnover percentage at 17.3 percent.

Fullerton has issues on both sides of the ball, which accounts for it current skid. Besides the aforementioned struggles defensively, the Titans are 276th in the country and dead last inside the conference in offensive efficiency, as well as 266th nationally and last in the conference in effective field percentage.

Yes, the biggest weakness of the UC Davis team is that it is ranked 328th in defensive efficiency, but Fullerton seems to lack the offensive weapons to take advantage.

Thus, we think that the underdogs from Davis should be able to score enough points here to at the very least take this game down to the wire, with an outright upset not beyond the realm of possibility on Thursday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: UC Davis +5 (-110)

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