NCAA Basketball Pick: Texas-San Antonio -1 over Texas-Arlington

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, January 10, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners look like a cheap price at home tonight against another new WAC member in Texas-Arlington, which has one of the worst offenses in the country so far.

The home team should break through Thursday night for its first conference win ever since joining the WAC when thee Texas-Arlington Mavericks (6-6, 4-2 away) pay a visit to those Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (4-10, 1-2 home) at the Convocation Center in San Antonio, TX at 8:00 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Texas-San Antonio as a tiny home favorite for this contest with the current line at -1 with odds of -109.

Texas-Arlington and Texas-San Antonio are both new members of the WAC this season but both came over from the Southland Conference together, so they are quite familiar with each other. In fact, UTSA leads the all-time series 35-28 after winning the final meeting vs. Arlington as members of the Southland back in March.

Now, UTA is off to a 6-6 start this season and the Mavericks even have one WAC win in their pocket already, in fact winning their first conference ever 68-47 at home vs. New Mexico State. Arlington has lost three straight games since that initial WAC victory though, with all three of those losses coming at home with two of them being conference affairs.

Granted the Mavericks are 4-2 straight up on the road, but do not read too much into that as the highest ranked team on the Pomeroy Ratings they defeated away from home was 225th ranked North Texas. Of greater concern is Arlington’s pathetic offense, as the Mavericks rank 329th in the country in scoring and 319th in field goal percentage!

A peak at their Pomeroy profile makes it easy to see why as UTA is ranked 314th in offensive efficiency, 307th in effective field goal percentage and 346th out of 347 Division I teams in offensive turnover percentage, including committing a ghastly 23 of them in its latest home defeat vs. Louisiana Tech on Saturday. And this is a team that actually opened up as a road favorite in this spot?

That should give you an idea of the start that UTSA has had, as the Roadrunners are 4-10, they have lost nine of their last 10 games and they are still in search of their initial WAC win ever, sitting at 0-4 in the conference. The most recent defeat was a 75-50 road loss to the Denver Pioneers as 15-point underdogs on Sunday.

Still, while the Roadrunners are not offensive juggernauts, they are not nearly as bad as Arlington is offensively ranking 183rd in efficiency and 155th in effective field goal percentage, and UTSA actually ranks a good 70th in three-point shooting at a commendable 36.2 percent. Considering all of the ugly numbers in all the other offensive categories for each of these teams, UTSA can win this game at home just with its three-point shooting alone!

Look for San Antonio to do just that as it grabs its first WAC win ever on Thursday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Texas-San Antonio -1 (-109)

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