NCAA Basketball Pick: Stony Brook +8½ over Iowa Hawkeyes

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, March 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

If someone asked you which NCAA Basketball team has the most true road wins in the country this season, you would win a lot of bar bets if you said Stony Brook! Take the points at Iowa.

The underdogs have surprisingly been the best road team in the country this season and offer nice value Friday night when those Stony Brook Seawolves (25-7, 13-5 away) pay a visit to the Iowa Hawkeyes (22-12, 17-2 home) in the second round of the NIT from Carver Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA at 9:30 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNU.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Stony Brook as a big underdog for this contest with the current line at +8½ with odds of -103.

Believe it or not, Stony Brook now has the most true road wins in the entire country with 13, and even looking at its five road losses, three of them were competitive losses vs. major schools where the Seawolves lost by 11 points at Connecticut, by seven points at Maryland and by one point at Seton Hall!

Furthermore, the other two Stony Brook true road losses inside America East play were by five and eight points respectively, making the “good” loss at UConn the only double-digit road loss all season and also meaning that Stony Brook would be 17-1 against the spread vs. tonight’s posted line.

Lucky road win number 13 came in the first round of this NIT 71-58 at Massachusetts Wednesday, and given how good Atlantic 10 teams have looked in the NCAA Tournament, beating one that handily on the road only helps validate Stony’s overall numbers.

The Seawolves held the Minutemen to 36.7 percent shooting on Wednesday, and that has not been unusual for a Stony Brook defense that is ranked 12th in the country in points against at 57.0 per game and fourth in field goal percentage allowed at 37.5 percent! The Wolves’ Pomeroy profile is just as bright as they rank 31st in the country in defensive efficiency, 16th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 11th in two-point defense.

Iowa had bigger aspirations than the NIT, but the Hawkeyes’ NCAA Tournament dreams died when they were nipped 59-56 by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. The did rebound to win their NIT opener 68-62 here at home over Indiana State on Wednesday, but they could be hard-pressed to match that point total tonight vs. a much better defense, which would make it hard to cover a fairly large spread like this.

You see, the Hawkeyes are not a good shooting basketball team as they rank only 254th in effective field goal percentage and a horrific 319th in three-point shooting. That means that what little offensive success Iowa has usually comes closer to the basket, but Iowa could have trouble even there tonight vs. the tough Stony Brook interior.

Frankly we would not be at all surprised if Stony Brook pulls off the outright upset here for its 14th road win of the year, so needless to say we see great value getting this many points on Friday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Stony Brook +8½ (-103)

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