NCAA Basketball Pick: Oregon State vs. Washington

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, January 25, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 25, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

The Oregon State Beavers, winners of three of their last four, hit the road to visit the Washington Huskies, fresh off of a big win over Oregon, in Pac-12 play on Saturday.

The better offense should be the deciding factor in a Pac-12 matchup between two leaky defenses on Saturday when the Oregon State Beavers (11-7, 2-4 away) pay a visit to the Washington Huskies (12-8, 10-2 home) at Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle, WA at 5:00 ET in a game available on Pac-12 Network.

The point spread at Bet365 has Oregon State as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +3 with odds of -110.

Oregon State displayed one of the best offenses in the country while going 8-4 during non-conference play, but that did not help the Beavers when they opened the Pac-12 season with back-to-back losses to Colorado and Utah. They have regrouped nicely however by winning three of their last four games after a road win at Washington State on Wednesday.

Washington is one-half game ahead of Oregon State in the conference at 4-3 as well as 12-8 overall, and they are a perfect 3-0 at home during Pac-12 play after beating Oregon on Thursday. That perfect record should be put to the test here though as the suspect Huskies’ defense should have its difficulties with the Oregon State sharp-shooters.

The Beavers were leading the country in field goal percentage before the start of conference play, and although that is no longer the case, it is not as if they have fallen off the map either as they are 10th overall at a hefty 49.6 percent.

Oregon State is also ranked 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 55.0 percent, thanks to ranking ninth in three-point shooting at 41.0 percent and also making 52.7 percent if its two-point shots. Furthermore the Beavers are shooting an unfathomable 51.1 percent from beyond the three-point arc during Pac-12 play, helping the lead the conference in effective field goal percentage.

That makes Oregon State an attractive underdog just about any time, but especially so vs. a Washington defense ranked 182nd in efficiency and 267th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Granted the Oregon State defense is just 184th in efficiency and 168th in effective field goal percentage allowed in its own right, but in a game that comes down to which offense takes better advantage of week defense, the Beavers appear to have the edge.

That is because the Huskies are only ranked 146th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 49.7 percent, and that percentage has actually dropped to 48.6 percent vs. Pac-12 opponents to rank eighth in conference play.

Washington has been maddeningly inconsistent overall, but one thing that has been consistent has been a downward spiral on the Pomeroy Ratings where the Huskies began this season ranked 49th overall and are now ranked 106th. Comparatively Oregon State is ranked 101st.

We just think the Oregon State shooters, particularly Roberto Nelson (21.7 points per game) and Devon Collier (14.1 PPG on 62.3 percent shooting) will be too much to handle as the Beavers could easily hand Washington its first conference home loss Saturday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Oregon State +3 (-110)

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