NCAA Basketball Pick: Old Dominion Monarchs +12 over Drexel

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 7, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Old Dominion may be a dismal 2-20 overall and 0-10 in CAA play, but Drexel is a terrible shooting team that should not be favored by double-digits over anyone so take the points.

The underdog that is winless in conference play actually seems to have value Thursday night when those Old Dominion Monarchs (2-20, 0-8 away) pay a visit to the Drexel Dragons (9-13, 2-6 home) at the Daskalakis Athletic Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7:00 ET in a game televised nationally on NBC Sports Network.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Old Dominion as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +12 with odds of -105.

Now, we totally understand that Old Dominion is a woeful 2-20 overall this season and that it remains winless inside the Colonial Athletic Association at 0-10 following an 85-74 loss at George Mason on Monday.

However, Drexel is a poor shooting team and the Dragons are only 6-15 ATS in their own right this season. That obviously makes Drexel a very dicey proposition as a double-digit favorite regardless of the opponent. After all, the 9-13 Dragons have yet to beat a team ranked higher than 94th on the Pomeroy Ratings this season, and that was Princeton out of the Ivy League.

Drexel has been a disappointment this season after finishing 29-7 last year and earning a berth in the NIT, and terrible shooting has been the reason for the demise. The Dragons rank 221st in the country on effective field goal percentage, thanks to ranking 252nd in two-point shooting and 143rd in three-point shooting. Furthermore, they do not get to the foul line often enough ranking 276th in FTA/FGA percentage.

Add that all up and you get just 62.0 points per game and two losses in the last three games to drop to a 5-5 CAA mark. Of course it has not helped that the defense has not been up to last year’s standard either, ranking 195th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Now make no mistake, Old Dominion is a bad basketball team and how it was able to beat a Virginia Cavaliers team currently ranked 42nd by Pomeroy for one of its two wins is beyond perplexing. The Monarchs have even lost nine straight games ATS!

Believe it or not, that long ATS losing streak actually puts ODU in a favorable situation. NCAA Basketball teams do not lose nine games in a row ATS very often as the oddsmakers are always making adjustments and eventually they pad the lines of those losing teams enough to actually give them value. To wit, underdogs coming off of nine-game ATS losing streaks are 14-8, 63.6 percent ATS since 1999.

This may be another of those value cases, as besides the fact that Drexel should not be favored by this much over anyone, this is actually more points than Old Dominion received in any game during the nine-game streak, during which it was a double-digit underdog only once.

With that in mind, we will hold out collective noses and take the big points with Old Dominion on Thursday.
 
[gameodds]14/219826/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Old Dominion +12 (-105)