NCAA Basketball Pick: NC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. Hofstra Pride

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, February 8, 2014 5:00 AM GMT

The NC-Wilmington Seahawks are still in pursuit of their first CAA win of the season as they travel to Long Island to take on the Hofstra Pride on Saturday night.

The home team looks to have a nice chance to keep the visitors winless in CAA play this year on Saturday night when those NC-Wilmington Seahawks (6-18, 3-11 away) pay a visit to the Hofstra Pride (7-17, 5-6 home) at the Mack Sports Complex in Hempstead, NY at 7:00 ET.

The point spread at Bet365 has Hofstra as a moderate home favorite for this contest with the current line at -4 with odds of -110.

NC-Wilmington has been one of the worst teams in the country and enters this contest on a 13-game losing streak. The Seahawks had some impossible early matchups such as taking on North Carolina in their final non-conference game, but that apparently did not prepare them well for the CAA as they remain winless in the conference at 0-9! Wilmington is averaging only 59.8 points vs. CAA foes while ranking last in the conference in offensive efficiency.

Hofstra comes in on a five-game losing streak of its own, but at least they are 3-6 in the conference and already own a win over the Seahawks on the road in Wilmington to go along with two good conference home wins over William & Mary and College of Charleston.

To say that NC-Wilmington is offensively challenged could be an understatement when taking about a team that ranks 325th in the country in scoring at 63.7 points per game and 322nd in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent. And those are just their raw numbers, and their Pomeroy profile is not any better.

The Seahawks rank 300th in offensive efficiency, 338th in effective field goal percentage and 350th out of 357 Division I teams in three-point shooting at 26.3 percent! And for good measure, the Seahawks are shooting a mere 66.1 percent from the foul line, so their winless CAA mark is actually understandable.

Wilmington is also 234th in the land and sixth inside the conference in defensive efficiency, so if you add this all up, the question becomes how did this team manage to win six games out of conference before the losing streak began? The answer is simple really as two of those wins came vs. Division II schools and of the Seahawks’ four Division I wins, they beat no team currently ranked higher than 242nd on the Pomeroy Ratings.

Now, we get that the Pride are not world-beaters either, but two huge edges Hofstra has here are in offensive rebinding percentage and FTA/FGA percentage. Hofstra is ranked 60th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3 percent, well above the national average of 31.6 percent. In fact the Pride could dominate the glass on both ends here as they are also fourth in defensive rebounding percentage during CAA conference games.

The Pride are also 61st nationally in FTA/FGA percentage at 45.9 percent vs. a national average of 40.8 percent, so if Hofstra cannot get separation from the woeful Seahawks during game action on the court, it should have ample opportunities to do so with the clock stopped from the foul line.

Add this all up and Hofstra should win fairly safely at home on Saturday.

[gameodds]14/257206/?r-1=43-238-92-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Hofstra -4 (-110)