NCAA Basketball Pick: Marist +10½ over Loyola-Maryland

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, January 17, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Marist has lost seven straight, but Loyola Maryland simply does not shoot the ball well enough to be giving double-digits to anyone, and the Greyhounds have not been great at home.

In what could be a lower scoring game than the big line would indicate on Thursday night, the Marist Red Foxes (4-13, 1-7 away) pay a visit to the Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds (12-6, 7-2 home) at Reitz Arena in Baltimore, MD at 7:30 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Marist as a big underdog for this contest with the current line at +10½ with odds of -107.

Loyola-Maryland is off to a 12-6 start this season, but the Greyhounds have not really beaten much while facing a schedule ranked 297th in SOS. They have not beaten a single team ranked in the Pomeroy Top 100, and have beaten only four teams ranked in the top 200 with the highest ranked of those being 113th ranked Fairfield.

Granted three of the six Greyhound losses came vs. Pomeroy 100 teams, but the other three losses came to 134th ranked Niagara here at home and to 152nd ranked Florida Gulf Coast and 171st ranked Rider on the road, with the latter loss coming in Loyola’s last game on Sunday.

The Greyhounds have been plagued by bad shooting after being picked by many to win the MAAC before the season, as they rank 291st in the country in effective field goal percentage, 182nd in two-point shooting at 46.7 percent and an atrocious 336th in three-point shooting at 26.6 percent.

Terrible shooting proved costly in the 64-57 loss at Rider on Sunday as the Greyhounds shot a disgusting 33.3 percent from the floor (19-for-57) including 3-for-19 from three-point range. Furthermore, Loyola is not a good free throw shooting team either at just 69.9 percent, making it even harder to cover double-digit spreads like this.

Also, the Greyhounds have always tended to play down to the level of the competition when playing at home, going an unbelievable 17-42-1 ATS in their last 60 home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400!

Marist is one of those teams that have managed to give the Greyhounds trouble, going 3-0 ATS in the last three head-to-head meetings. The Red Foxes did manage to beat Vanderbilt on a neutral floor earlier this season, so it is not as if they are totally inept.

The Red Foxes have also covered in two of their last three losses during their seven-game losing streak in close losses to Iona and Canisius, so there in no reason why they cannot hang within single-digits of a poor shooting team like Loyola on Thursday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Marist +10½ (-107)

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