NCAA Basketball Pick: Jackson State +6 over Prairie View A&M

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 14, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jan. 14, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Jackson State is 1-13, but the Tigers faced an ambitious non-conference schedule where they really had no chance in most games and Prairie View does not shoot well enough to be -6.

The SWAC gets a rare chance to be showcased in front of a national audience on Monday night when the Jackson State Tigers (1-13, 1-11 away) pay a visit to the Prairie View A&M Panthers (6-11, 5-1 home) at the William Nicks Building in Prairie View, TX at 9:00 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNU..

The point spread at Bookmaker Sportsbook has Jackson State as a decided underdog for this contest with the current line at +6 with odds of -110.

Yes, Jackson State is 1-13, but consider that the Tigers were outclassed in most of their non-conference games as they have faced a schedule ranked 87th in the country in SOS while losing to the likes of Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Washington and Washington State all on the road! In fact, the Tigers opened up the year with 11 straight true road games, even scoring their only win at Seattle, and they have played just two home games all season. 
Given that context, is it really that surprising that a SWAC school doing battle with so may major conference schools on the road is ranked 325th overall on the Pomeroy Ratings while ranking 326th in offensive efficiency and 327th in effective field goal percentage at 42.7 percent? Now, by no means are we insinuating that the Tigers are a good team or anything like that, but they are now finally back in their own element with the arrival of conference play.

Besides, it is not as if Jackson State was totally destroyed by the big boys as the Tigers actually enjoyed their trip to the northwest, as the lone win at Seattle was preceded by just an eight-point loss at Washington and an 11-point loss at Washington State. The Tigers have not had a lined game this season until tonight, but they have fared well on the rare occasions when they have been on the board over the years, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as road dogs.

And remember what we said about Jackson State now being back in its own element? Well, Prairie View A&M is ranked 318th overall on the Pomeroy Ratings, just seven spots above the Tigers despite the Panthers having a better 6-11 record.

The difference is that Prairie View does not have the excuse of a brutal schedule to fall back on, so the fact that the Panthers rank 224th in the country in points scored, 328th in offensive efficiency and 339th in effective field goal percentage at 40.9 percent, which is actually worse than Jackson State, is more distressing because those numbers have come vs. a schedule rated only 286th in SOS.

Also, of Prairie View’s six wins, three came vs. non-Division I schools and the other three came vs. a Grambling team ranked dead last among the 347 Division I teams according to Pomeroy, 283rd ranked Navy and 185th ranked Houston, so it not as if the Panthers have a class edge here to justify being favored by six points. In fact, the class edge probably goes to Jackson State given the two schedules.

With that in mind take the points with Jackson State in a rare TV appearance Monday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: Jackson State +6 (-110)

comment here