NCAA Basketball Pick: IUPUI +18 over South Dakota State

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 14, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 14, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Despite the fact that South Dakota State is one of the top teams in the Summit League while IUPUI is 6-20 and has lost 10 straight, the shooting percentages of the teams are very close!

The humongous underdog could have some hidden value Thursday when the IUPUI Jaguars (6-20, 1-11 away) pay a visit to the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (19-7, 12-0 home) at Frost Arena in Brookings, SD at 8:05 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has IUPUI as a huge underdog for this contest with the current line at +18 with odds of -105.

Besides being just 6-20 overall, IUPUI is also 1-11 in Summit League play and it has lost 10 straight games since winning its only conference game of the year vs. in-state rival IPFW 88-74 on December 27th, meaning that the Jaguars have yet to win a game during the calendar year 2013.

That is hardly the point though as they are not being asked to win this game either, but only cover the enormous spread, and believe it or not when you compare the shooting percentages of these two teams, the Jaguars seem very capable of doing just that!

IUPUI has had some close calls during the losing streak and it even had some during non-conference play because the Jaguars are actually a competent shooting team, ranking 69th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 51.4 percent and a quite good 35th in three-point shooting at 37.7 percent. Although they rank 115th in two-point shooting, even there their 48.7 percent success rate is above the national average of 47.4 percent.

So with pretty good shooting like that, why is IUPUI only 208 in offensive efficiency? Well, that would be because the Jaguars are a dreadful rebounding team, in fact ranking 343rd out of 347 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage.

However, although they are facing a South Dakota State team that has 19 wins and is 10-3 inside the Summit League, the Jackrabbits are not a good offensive rebounding team either, so the difference in second-chance points in this game should not be that great.

The Jackrabbits won the Summit League last season and only lost 68-60 to Baylor in the NCAA Tournament. They are certainly contenders to win the conference again this season as their 10-3 Summit mark leaves then one-half game behind 10-2 Western Illinois.

However, a look at South Dakota State’s shooting percentages actually reveal similar numbers as IUPUI! The Jackrabbits rank 52nd in effective field goal percentage at 51.8 percent, 33rd in three-point shooting at 38.1 percent and 117th in two-point shooting at 48.6 percent. Furthermore, like the Jaguars, the Jackrabbits are not a great offensive rebounding team ranking 265th in that category.

When you also factor in that South Dakota State is ranked 232nd in defensive efficiency, it makes this spread look even more enormous so take the points with IUPUI on Thursday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: IUPUI +18 (-105)

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