NCAA Basketball Pick: Idaho State +17 over Weber State

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 11, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Weber State may already have one eye on a big showdown with Montana on Thursday while Idaho State plays at one of the slower paces in the country, so take the big points Monday.

The seemingly outclassed underdogs are actually in a nice situational spot Monday night when those Idaho State Bengals (4-18, 1-12 away) pay a visit to the Weber State Wildcats (16-5, 9-1 home) at the Dee Events Center in Ogden, UT at 9:05 ET.

The point spread at Heritage Sports has Idaho State as a huge underdog for this contest with the current line at +17 with odds of -113.

There is very little doubt that Weber State is the better basketball team hare, as besides being 16-5 overall, the Wildcats are second in the Big Sky Conference with an 11-2 conference mark and they have won 12 of their last 14 games overall.

Furthermore, Weber State is the highest ranked Big Sky team on the Pomeroy Ratings and the only one in the Top 100, at 91st overall. With that being said, the Wildcats are in an obvious look-ahead spot here with a big home showdown coming up on Thursday against a Montana team that currently leads the conference with a perfect 14-0 record and is also riding a 14-game winning streak overall.

Thus it would be understandable for Weber State’s attention to be divided here vs. an Idaho State team that the Wildcats have already beaten by 16 points at Pocatello. Besides, as fine a record as Weber State has straight up, it is always vulnerable as a big double-digit favorite because is applies no pressure on defense, ranking a dismal 319th in the country in defensive turnover percentage.

That sometimes enables teams capable of slowing games down to do just that basically unhindered, thus allowing them to hang around and making it hard to cover enormous spreads under the best of circumstances, let alone in situations like tonight were the Wildcats have their biggest game of the year to this point coming up next.

We totally get that Idaho State is just 3-10 in conference play and is entering this contest on a six-game losing streak. However, the Bengals are literally one of the slowest and most methodical teams in the nation, as they rank 345th out o 347 Division I teams with a tempo rating of 59.7 possessions per game. Because of that slow pace, the Bengals do not get annihilated as much as you might think for a team with a 4-18 record.

In fact, Idaho State has lost just three games all season by more than tonight’s 17-point spread, with two off those losses coming when the Bengals were totally outclassed vs. a couple of Pac-12 opponents in Oregon and Washington State and the third one coming by 19 points on the road at Montana.

Given Weber State’s lack of defensive pressure, we see no reason why Idaho State cannot do its thing here, which is shorten the game by milking the clock on every possession, and once again stay inside the 17-point spread on Monday.
 
[gameodds]14/220398/169-238-19-93-92/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Idaho State +17 (-113)