NCAA Basketball Pick: Florida State +2½ over Georgia Tech

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 5, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Georgia Tech is a small favorite Tuesday despite being a bad shooting team and 2-6 in ACC play. Florida State comes off a home blowout loss to Duke but the Noles have value here.

The wrong team could possibly be favored on Tuesday night when the underdog Florida State Seminoles (12-9, 2-3 away) pay a visit to the favored Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (12-8, 10-2 home) at McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, GA at 9:00 ET in a game available on ESPN3.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Florida State as a small underdog for this contest with the current line at +2½ with odds of -101.

Florida State is coming off of a bad 79-60 home loss to Duke on Saturday, but the Seminoles are certainly not the first team to get blown out by the Blue Devils this season and they probably will not be the last, so do not read too much into that one loss.

The Noles are now 4-4 in ACC play, and strangely they are looking for their first conference win this season vs. a team other than Maryland and Clemson, as they have already swept the season series vs. both of those schools. Florida State has also won the last seven head-to-head meetings vs. the Yellowjackets with the most recent being 68-54 back in Tallahassee last season.

The reason we mention last year’s contest is that now senior Michael Snaer filled out the stat sheet in that game with 21 points, three assists and five steals, and that was after going for 15 points on 6-for-7 shooting here in Atlanta as a sophomore two seasons ago. Snaer is leading the Noles in scoring this season with his 13.8 points per game and he is hitting on a nice 38.8 percent from beyond the three-point arc.

Florida State is ranked a rather ho hum 82nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 112th in effective field goal percentage at an even 50.0  percent, but that makes the Seminoles seem like world-beaters when compared to Georgia Tech’s shooting woes this season.

Georgia Tech is coming off of a 66-60 home win over Virginia, but that only brings the Yellowjackets to 2-6 inside the conference, and besides the offensively challenged Cavaliers, the other ACC win was vs. a Wake Forest team ranked 149th on the Pomeroy Ratings.

You cannot win games if you cannot score, and Georgia Tech is ranked an ugly 200th in offensive efficiency and 229th in effective field goal percentage at a dismal 47.0 percent. Sure the Yellowjackets are 12-12 overall, but that is because they went 10-2 vs. a cupcake non-conference schedule that ranked 339th in the country in SOS according to Pomeroy.

Georgia Tech has usually failed to step up when facing better competition going 11-23-1 ATS in its last 35 games vs. teams with a winning straight up records. The Jackets really have just one quality win all year with that coming vs. Saint Mary’s on a neutral floor in Anaheim.

We don’t think that simply being home is enough for Georgia Tech here, so take the points with Florida State on Tuesday.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Florida State +2½ (-101)

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