NCAA Basketball Pick: Florida A&M +7½ over North Carolina A&T

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 12, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The MEAC is one of the weakest conferences in the land where all the teams that did not have first round byes are almost equally bad, giving Florida A&M value as a decided dog.

The underdog looks to have inherent value in a weak conference on Tuesday night as those Florida A&M Rattlers (8-22, 1-16 away) take on the North Carolina A&T Aggies (15-16, 5-12 away) at Norfolk Scope Arena in Norfolk, VA at 6:30 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Florida A&M as a decided underdog for this contest with the current line at +7½ with odds of -107.

The opening round of the MEAC Conference continues on Tuesday, and keep in mind that this is one of the weakest conferences in the country, in fact ranking 30th out of 32 Division I conferences as a whole according to the Pomeroy Ratings. That means that once you get past the first four seeds consisting of Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State and Hampton, the rest of the conference is more or less equally bad.

That should give Florida A&M good value at this price, a line that is inflated more due to Rattlers’ starting guard Reggie Lewis being out with an ankle injury. Lewis is hardly a game-changer though averaging 10.5 points and only 2.1 assists, as this team runs through fellow guard Jamie Adams, so we are not so sure that Lewis is worthy of a 1½-point adjustment from an opening line of +6.

Besides, North Carolina A&T does not shoot the ball well enough to be giving this many points. The Aggies are ranked 327th in offensive efficiency, 319th in effective field goal percentage, 295th in two-point shooting and 323rd in three-point shooting, and they are the team favored by 7½ points here!

For good measure, the Aggies are extremely sloppy with the basketball ranking 319th in offensive turnover percentage, and that could be the biggest key to this game because Florida A&M does apply good pressure on the ball.

The Rattlers may not be much offensively either, but that would only put them on par with the Aggies making getting this many points attractive, and the Florida A&M defense can decide this outcome as it ranks a very good 44th in the entire country in defensive turnover percentage, making for a nice matchup vs. a turnover prone offense.

With all of this in mind, take the generous points with Florida A&M on Tuesday.

[gameodds]14/224281/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Florida A&M +7½ (-107)