NCAA Basketball Pick: Evansville, Canisius ‘under’ 147½

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 26, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

This total between Evansville and Canisius seems to be inflated due to some anomalous high scoring games by each team lately, giving value to the ‘under’ in this spot Tuesday.

In a game where the total seems to be very inflated on Tuesday night, the Evansville Purple Aces (20-14, 4-10 away) pay a visit to the Canisius Golden Griffins (20-13, 12-3 home) in one of the quarterfinal games of the CIT Tournament from the Koessler Athletic Center in Buffalo, NY at 7:00 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 147½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ posted at -108.

The total may be padded in this matchup because both teams are coming off of atypically high-scoring games, and the total seems really inflated when looking at the season-to-date home vs. away scoring splits for these teams.

Evansville in fact advanced to these quarterfinals with a couple of high scoring affairs, first beating Tennessee State 84-72 and then beating Eastern Kentucky 86-72 on Saturday. Despite those two outbursts, the Purple Aces still ranking just 143rd in the country on offensive efficiency and 233rd on two-point shooting at a mere 46.1 percent. The Aces rely heavily on three-pointers, ranking 31st by hitting 37.5 percent of them.

Perhaps more significantly both of those high scoring wins came at home and the Evansville offense has not been as good on the road. In fact, the Evansville scoring average drops to 63.6 points away from home and the three-point percentage drops to 36.2 percent. Those road contests averaged a combined 131.2 points, which is around 16 points less than this posted total!

Furthermore, Evansville has played 14 true road games this season and only two of them have exceeded 147 points, with the most recent coming against one of the best shooting teams in the nation at Creighton. The Aces are facing no such offensive juggernaut here.

Canisius finished in fifth place in the MAAC this season and then lost to Iona in the conference tournament, but their 18-13 record after that loss was good enough for a CIT invite. The Golden Griffins then beat Elon 69-53 here at home before going on the road and beating Youngstown State in an 84-82 overtime shootout in a mild upset as 2½-point underdogs in the second round on Saturday.

We expect a return to normalcy with the change in venue back to Buffalo tonight though, where Canisius may be averaging 72.9 points this season, but it is allowing only 64.8 points per game, and that combined total of 137.7 points is about 10 points less than this posted total.

Look for each team’s home/away splits to hold true to form for a rather safe ‘under’ in this CIT quarterfinal on Tuesday.

[gameodds]14/225479/238-19-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Evansville, Canisius ‘under’ 147½ (-108)