NCAA Basketball Pick: East Carolina, Weber State ‘under’ 146½

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Both East Carolina and Weber State have been going ‘under’ regularly during the CIT, and with Weber State playing stiff defense at home all year, go ‘under’ again in the CIT Championship.

Look for defense to rule the day in the CIT Championship Game Tuesday night as the East Carolina Pirates (22-12, 5-7 away) pay a visit to the Weber State Wildcats (30-6, 17-1 home) at the Dee Events Center in Ogden, UT at 8:00 ET in a game televised nationally on CBS Sports Network.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 146½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

East Carolina is in the midst of the best basketball season in school history at 22-12, and remember that the Pirates had never won a post-season tournament game as a Division I school before edging Savannah State 66-65 in the opening round of this CIT. The Pirates then followed that up with wins over Rider, Loyola-Maryland and Evansville to advance to this championship game.

The Pirates had been winning with offense during the regular season, as that part of their game has held true during this CIT as they have averaged 73.0 points during their four wins, which is actually a touch off their season average of 76.5 points. Keep in mind however that all four of East Carolina’ CIT games have been at home and the Pirates must now travel across the county to an unfamiliar venue vs. a stiff defense.

Speaking of defense, that has been the surprising aspect of East Carolina’s post-season run. The Pirates were not known for their defense during the regular season, but they have held their four CIT opponents to just 58.8 points per game on a combined 88-for-245, 35.9 percent shooting from the floor!

As a result, the ‘under’ is 3-1 in East Carolina’ four tournament games and it is one-half point away from being 4-0 as that is now much the Savannah State win snuck ‘over’ by. Those four tournament games have averaged a combined 131.8 points, which is about 15 whopping points less than this posted total.

Weber State is now at 30 wins for the year as it is trying to become the first Big Sky Conference team in history to win a post-season tournament of any kind. The Wildcats have gotten to this point by knocking off Cal Poly SLO, Air Force and Oral Roberts at home and, perhaps most impressively, Northern Iowa on the road 59-56 on Saturday.

But again we go back to this total, which seems quite inflated when you consider that the ‘under’ is also 3-1 in the four Weber State CIT games with an average combined total of 133.8 points. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played excellent defense in this arena all year, allowing only 58.3 points per game on 39.1 percent shooting at home.

Look for the post-season ‘under’ pattern by both of these schools to continue in the CIT Championship Game from Ogden on Tuesday.


NCAA Basketball Pick: East Carolina, Weber State ‘under’ 146½ (-107)

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