NCAA Basketball Pick on Colorado Buffaloes in CBI Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, March 23, 2015 2:56 PM GMT

Monday, Mar. 23, 2015 2:56 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Monday.

 



The NCAA Tournament may be on a three-day break, but that does not mean there is no value to be found Monday night with the road favorite in the second round of the CBI Tournament when those Colorado Buffaloes (16-17, 2-10 away) pay a visit to the Seattle Redhawks (17-15, 13-5 home) at the Connolly Center in Seattle, WA at 10:00 ET with live streaming available at cbssports.com.


The point spread at Pinnacle Sports now has Colorado as a moderate favorite for this contest with the current line at -5½ with odds of -106.


Only Major Conference Team in CBI
Colorado lost quite a bit from the team that went to the NCAA Tournament last season and it showed as the Buffaloes went just 14-16 during the regular season this year including 7-11 inside the Pac-12, although they did then win a game in the Pac-12 Tournament beating Oregon State before even giving an Oregon team that did go to the Big Dance trouble before losing 93-85 in the tournament quarterfinals.

Apparently that was good enough to get a CBI invite, and the Buffaloes accepted to become the only major-conference school to be participating in this tournament.

Seattle meanwhile comes out of the WAC where it went just 7-7 in conference play during the season but then very nearly stole an NCAA Tournament berth with a run to the WAC Tournament Championship Game, but the Redhawks were blowout losing NCAA Basketball picks 80-61 to New Mexico State, allowing the Aggies to go Dancing.


Over 50 Percent Shooting Last Six Games
Colorado is playing without leading scorer Askia Booker, whose college career is over as he will miss this tournament while resting the sore hips that made him less mobile over the second half of the season than usual, but somewhat surprisingly the Colorado offense has gotten better in recent contests, with the Buffs shooting a combined 183-for-361, 50.7 percent over the last six games!

That includes shooting 52.8 percent while playing without Booker in an 87-78 win over Gardner-Webb in the first round of this tournament last Wednesday while also destroying the Runnin’ Bulldogs on the glass, out-rebounding them 39-18! And that is nothing new for a Colorado team that is has a good offensive rebounding percentage of 34.1 percent vs. a national average of 31.1 percent while also ranking a very good 55th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

And the Buffaloes have the obvious class edge here having faced a schedule ranked 52nd in the country in SOS according to the Pomeroy Ratings.


One of Weakest Schedules in Country
The Redhawks are currently 17-15 overall but they have just one win all season vs. a team ranked in the Pomeroy Top 100, and just barely so as it was vs. 93rd ranked New Mexico State at home during the regular season, the same New Mexico State team Seattle lost to in the WAC Championship Game. As a result, Seattle has faced one of the easiest schedules in the county with an SOS ranked 344th out of 351 Division I teams.

And yet despite that very weak schedule, the Redhawks have struggled offensively ranking 282nd in the nation in offensive efficiency, mainly because that are extremely sloppy with the basketball ranking 326th in offensive turnover percentage at 21.9 percent vs. a national average of 19.1 percent.

Sure Seattle beat Pepperdine 62-45 Wednesday to get to this point, but we do not expect the Redhawks to muster up much of anything here taking on a Pac-12 defense that is allowing an effective field goal percentage of only 48.7 percent this year while usually facing much stronger opponents.


Seattle Has Not Fared Well vs. Pac-12 Teams
As you might expect, Seattle has not fared well vs. the Pac-12 in the past going 2-9 straight up with both wins coming vs. what was then a poor Oregon State team in the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. And although the fans here in Seattle usually get excited when Pac-12 teams come visiting, the Redhawks are 1-4 at home vs. that conference, and if you take away the win over Oregon State, the four home losses have been by an average of -18.0 points.

As long as Colorado remains interested in this tournament, and it showed no signs of disinterest vs. Gardner-Webb, then the Buffaloes should basically be able to name the score in a safe win visiting Seattle in the CBI on Monday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Colorado -5½ (-106)

 

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