NCAA Basketball Pick on Clemson, Georgia Tech to go ‘over’

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 16, 2015 6:15 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 16, 2015 6:15 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

 



Two teams not renowned for their offenses could produce a sneaky ‘over’ Monday night given this low posted total when the Clemson Tigers (15-10, 3-4 away) pay a visit to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-14, 6-6 home) at McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, GA at 7:00 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNU.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 116½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.


Teams are Neck-and-Neck on Pomeroy
There is a large differential between these teams in the ACC standings, but not on the Pomeroy Ratings. Clemson is 15-10 overall and seventh in the conference with a 7-6 ACC mark, as the Tigers recovered from a midweek 60-58 home loss to Notre Dame to rout Virginia Tech 75-54 on Saturday, again at home. The Tigers are ranked 79th overall on Pomeroy on the strength of a defense ranked 32nd in efficiency, as that has offset a 186th ranking in offensive efficiency.

Georgia Tech meanwhile is 14th or second to last in the ACC with a 2-11 mark, as only 1-10 Boston College is keeping the Yellow Jackets, who were the losing NCAA Basketball picks again here at home 57-53 to Florida State on Saturday, out of the conference basement. And yet, Georgia Tech is right behind the Tigers on Pomeroy at 80th overall, and with a similar profile too ranking 37th in defensive efficiency and 177th in offensive efficiency.


Georgia Tech Conference Games Higher Scoring
Georgia Tech has the profile of a team that is better than its record and you would get no argument about that from the Duke Blue Devils after the Yellow Jackets went into Cameron Indoor Stadium and threw a scare into the current fourth ranked team in the country on the AP Poll before falling 72-66 four games ago. The Jackets apparently benefitted from that effort as they followed it up with their second ACC win vs. Wake Forest, but have since lost two straight.

But the most interesting aspect about Georgia Tech’s conference games this season is that they are averaging a combined 127.0 points, which is over 10 points higher than this posted total. One way that the Yellow Jackets have helped their scoring is through second chances, as they are 10th in the entire country in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.8 percent. Look for them to have ample second chances here with Clemson ranked just 146th in defensive rebounding percentage.


Clemson Games Lower Scoring but Good Enough
The Tigers have had more success in the Win column despite a similar profile as Georgia Tech, except that Clemson’s ACC games have been lower scoring averaging a combined 117.5 points. While that is certainly a low combined average, please note that average would still be good enough to barely sneak ‘over’ this deflated posted total.

Sure the ‘under’ is now 13-4 in all Clemson games and the ‘under’ had incredibly hit nine times in a row before the ‘over’ finally scored in the win over Virginia Tech Saturday where 129 total points were produced, but the oddsmakers have caught on and this 116½ total tonight is the second lowest posted figure in any Clemson game this year, and the Tiger easily went ‘over’ the lowest total of 113½ in a 71-62 win over the Pittsburgh Panthers.


Late Fouls in Close Game Would Help Too
Finally, with this expected to be a close game with Georgia Tech currently favored by either 2½ or 3 points depending on the sportsbook, there is a real possibility of a lot of late fouling, which is always a boon to a low posted total like this.

Add this all up and while we are by no means expecting a shootout, we still feel that Georgia Tech and Clemson will do enough to go ‘over’ this deflated total in Atlanta on Monday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Clemson, Georgia Tech ‘over’ 116½ (-108)

 

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