NCAA Basketball Pick on Charleston to Get Home Win

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 21, 2015 3:05 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.

 

The more desperate home team could have enough to eke out a win Wednesday night in CAA action when the NC Wilmington Seahawks (9-8, 4-7 away) pay a visit to those Charleston Cougars (6-13, 3-5 home) at TD Arena in Charleston, SC at 7:30 ET in a game available on Charleston Sports Net.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Charleston as a tiny home underdog for this contest with the current line at +1½ with odds of -118.


One Game Back in CAA Standings
NC Wilmington is very much in the race for the CAA regular season title, as the Seahawks are part of a three-way tie for third place in the conference standings at 4-2. Those teams are only one game behind 5-1 William & Mary and Northeastern, who sit tied atop the conference. The Seahawks helped their standing with a nice 79-74 road win at Hofstra in their last game on Saturday.

Charleston on the other hand is languishing at 1-5 in the conference, finally getting that first CAA win on the road at Elon two games ago. The Cougars then gave one of the conference kingpins all that it can handle Saturday before being just a 69-67 losing NCAA Basketball pick to Northeastern in Boston. Charleston can be very tough at home here despite the disparity in the conference standings between these teams if it can duplicate those last two road efforts.


Dangerous Three-Point Team
Charleston made the proper decision to fire former coach Doug Wojcik before this season after it came out that he verbally abused his players, and he was replaced by Earl Grant. There has been a rocky transition period though based on the 6-13 overall record thus far, but at least the Cougars appear to be heading in the right direction with their most recent play. And the main reason for the improvement has been three-point shooting.

First the Cougars went 8-for-15, 53.3 percent beyond the arc while breaking their conference maiden this season with the 66-50 win at Elon, and then they went 9-for-19, 47.4 percent from three-point land in the near stunner at Northeastern. And now that three-point shooting can key their first home conference victory in this spot.

You see, Charleston has actually shot three-pointers well the whole season hitting 36.7 percent of them to rank a very respectable 73rd in the country overall in three-point percentage, and that figure is now up to 38.4 percent during CAA play. That success should continue here vs. a Wilmington team that struggles with perimeter defense, ranking 239th nationally in three-point defense at 35.3 percent.


Could be Without Leading Scorer
Now, NC Wilmington is certainly a legitimate contender for the CAA crown and the Seahawks deserve credit for playing a tough non-conference schedule during which they lost to the likes of Louisville, Davidson, Minnesota and Old Dominion. However, they could potentially be missing the biggest contributor to their success tonight.

That is because leading scorer Freddie Jackson sprained his ankle in the win at Hofstra and he is considered a game time decision for this contest. Keep in mind that Wilmington forward Dylan Sherwood suffered an identical injury earlier this season and was allowed to play through it, only to aggravate the injury next game and then missing two weeks. That event will no doubt be in the mind of Coach Kevin Keatts when making his decision.

And even if Jackson does play, there is no telling how his mobility will be affected and his presence would really change nothing about the Wilmington defense, which has held the Seahawks back from having more success. That unit is ranked 191st in defensive efficiency and 160th in effective field goal percentage allowed at 48.4 percent, as well as not applying much pressure ranking 201st in defensive turnover percentage.

To top things off the Seahawks allow way too many second chances, ranking a dismal 263rd in defensive turnover percentage.


Home Teams Prevailed Last Season
Last season was the first year in the CAA for Charleston and these teams split their two meetings with the home club prevailing each time, as the Cougars won 75-70 here and the Seahawks prevailed 57-55 in overtime back in Wilmington.

Look for that home pattern to continue for at least one more game with Charleston getting the much needed home win over NC Wilmington on Wednesday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Charleston +1½ (-118)