NCAA Basketball Pick: Central Michigan -1 over Eastern Michigan

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 15, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

The Central Michigan Chippewas are 10-4 ATS this season, and at 197th they rank 100 spots higher on the Pomeroy Ratings then their terrible shooting opponents from Eastern Michigan.

The road team seems to be undervalued in MAC action on Tuesday night as the Central Michigan Chippewas (8-7, 1-4 away) pay a visit to the Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-9, 7-2 home) at the EMU Convocation Center in Ypsilanti, MI at 7:00 ET in a game available on ESPN3.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Central Michigan as a tiny road favorite for this contest with the current line at -1 with odds of -105.

Central Michigan has been very friendly to its supporters so far going 10-4 ATS, and the Chippewas are currently on a four-game ATS winning streak that includes covering the spread vs. Michigan in Ann Arbor, which is no easy feat for any MAC team.

The Chippewas may rank only 197th overall on the Pomeroy Rankings, but that is still a full 100 spots higher than their opponents from Eastern Michigan at 297th, and Central Michigan is the much better shooting team.

Granted you would not know it by CMU ranking 170th in the country in points scored with 68.3 per game, but that makes the Chippewas look like Duke when compared to Eastern Michigan’s offense. Besides, the Chips rank a commendable 94th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency at 104.4 points per 100 possessions, safely ahead of the national average of 99.5 points.

Also, every single one of the Chippewas’ seven losses has come vs. teams ranked significantly higher than EMU. CMU has also won the last three meetings straight up including it last visit here to Ypsilanti last season, and while the Eagles are 7-2 at home this season, that home record has not come vs. a very foreboding schedule.

Granted Eastern Michigan has faced a schedule ranked 73rd in SOS, so its 7-9 overall record is almost to be expected. However, most of the Eagles’ tough matchups have come on the road and there is really no excuse for losing to the types of 211th ranked Bowling Green and 176th ranked Oakland here at home.

Also, looking at the seven home wins, the only quality win was over Purdue, as besides that the Eagles beat three non-Division 1 teams and no one ranked higher than 264th.

As for the aforementioned dreadful shooting, there are 347 schools in Division I this season and Eastern Michigan ranks 339th in offensive efficiency at 84.7 points per 100 possessions and an even worse 344th in effective field goal percentage at a dismal 40.5 percent.

EMU comes in losers of four straight games and of seven of the last eight, with the only win in that span coming vs. something called Siena Heights, which is an NAIA school. Moreover, while two of the seven losses came at Michigan and Kentucky as expected, the other five losses all came to teams ranked 123rd or worse on Pomeroy.

We do not feel that just being at home will be enough to get by Central Michigan on Tuesday.

[gameodds]14/217356/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Central Michigan -1 (-105)