NCAA Basketball Pick: Bet Jacksonville State in Ohio Valley Action vs. Southeast Mizzou

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:57 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016 7:57 PM GMT

Not all money-making opportunities come in power conferences, and there could be a nice gem in the Ohio Valley Conference Wednesday in Jacksonville State over SE Missouri State.

 

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Jacksonville State +1
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

We see nice value in the Ohio Valley Conference Wednesday night as the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (5-14, 6-7 ATS) sit at just a Pick as they pay a visit to the horrid SE Missouri State Redhawks (2-14, 6-7-1 ATS) at the Show Me Center in Cape Girardeau, MO at 8:45 ET with live video steaming available on ovcdigitalnetwork.com.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Jacksonville State as a toss-up in this contest with the current line at Pick’em with odds of -110.

 

Should SE Missouri State be Close to PICK vs. Anyone?
This is more of a play against SE Missouri State, who actually opened as a small favorite in this game before the line moved to PICK. We feel this is a team that does not deserve that much respect vs. anyone, as the Redhawks are 2-14 but have just one win over a fellow Division I school with the second win being over a sub-level team called Harris Stowe, and by only 10 points at that! The one outlier was a shocking upset of Missouri State as 15-point underdogs.

Now, we are under no misgivings that Jacksonville State is a powerhouse or anything like that, as the Gamecocks sit at 5-14 and have been the losing NCAA Basketball picks in nine of their last 11 games. However, at least they have three wins over Division I schools this season including owning the only conference win for either of these teams, a 72-67 win over SIU-Edwardsville in the Ohio Valley opener.

 

One of Worst Teams in Country
This is a conference that first drew national attention when Murray State became a national darling a few years ago and then it added another team that can match up with anyone in Belmont, but nonetheless it is just the 22nd ranked conference as a whole according to the Pomeroy Ratings among the 32 NCAA Basketball Division I conferences. And SE Missouri State is the lowest ranked team from the conference, ranking 337th out of 351 Division I teams.

Furthermore, this team grades out terribly on both ends, ranking 340th in offensive efficiency and 298th in defensive efficiency. The Redhawks would have trouble shooting the ball into an ocean as they are 332nd in the country in effective field goal percentage, thanks to ranking 319th in three-point shooting at 29.6 percent and 320th in two-point shooting. But wait there’s more, as the Redhawks are dead last nationally in free throw shooting at 59 percent!

As if being a horrendous shooting team was not enough, SE Missouri State is also very sloppy with the basketball ranking 292nd in offensive turnover percentage at 20.5 percent vs. a national average of 18.6 percent. That becomes an added concern here because the Jacksonville State defense is actually above average forcing turnovers on 19.0 percent of opponents’ possessions.

 

Ball Protection and Free Throws Will be Key
Jacksonville State is slightly outscoring SE Missouri State offensively (67.9 to 66.6) while being much better in points against defensively (71.5 to 80.4), and there are several factors here that should swing this contest in the Gamecocks’ favor despite being on the road.

For starters, Jacksonville State should have a big advantage in the turnover department. We had already addressed the sloppiness issue for SE Missouri State, while the Gamecocks do not usually beat themselves, ranking a very respectable 96th in the land in offensive turnover percentage at 17.4 percent.

Then, there is the expected vast disparity in the free throw shooting for these teams that should allow the Gamecocks to open up some more daylight in this contest. That is because while the Redhawks are literally the worst shooting free throw team in the country percentage wise, Jacksonville State is 70th from the charity stripe at a good 72.7 percent.

On top of all this, Jacksonville State is playing with double revenge here after losing to SE Missouri State each of the last two years, and it certainly appears that the Gamecocks have the edge in talent to get that revenge this season.

 

What Home Court Advantage?
Finally, this line seems to be giving SE Missouri State credit for being at home, but the problem with that is that the Redhawks have not really enjoyed any home court advantage, in fact going 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams with losing home records.

Thus, we are willing to ignore home court in this instance and simply back the better team in a Pick’em game, so take Jacksonville State on the road visiting SE Missouri State in Cape Girardeau on Wednesday.

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