NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Worst Defensive Teams 2015

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, January 24, 2015 6:25 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2015 6:25 PM GMT

In today’s article, we examine the worst defensive teams in NCAA basketball. I call them “the Defensive Duds.” As with the other lists, it will lead you to pointspread winners.

Check out Joe Gavazzi's Top Defensive Rankings here.

Earlier this season, I presented 3 lists which were necessary to statistically handicap college basketball games. These included “The 230 Offensive Club.”  These were the best and most efficient offensive teams in college basketball. The opposite of this group was entitled “The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight.”  These are the worst offensive teams in college basketball. The 3rd list was the “Defensive Dandies and More.”  It is clear from the title of this article that these represent the best defensive teams in college hoops. If you have not read any of these articles and enjoy statistical handicapping as a means of isolating fundamental advantages, then I implore you to read them. In today’s article, we examine the worst defensive teams in NCAA basketball. I call them “the Defensive Duds.” As with the other lists, it will lead you to pointspread winners. The numbers for this article are through Sunday, January 18th. All numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number for ease of use. The following are the criterion for teams to become a member of “The 2015 NCAA basketball Defensive Duds.”

1.      Allow 72 or more PPG.

2.      Allow 45% or higher FG%.

3.      Allow 36% or higher from behind the 3 point arc.

4.      DO NOT have a positive rebound margin, A/TO margin AND TO margin. 

Now, let’s take a look at the chart that presents the 2015 CBKB Defensive Duds.

 

TEAM

DEF PPG

DEF FG%

DEF 3 PT%

TOTAL

SU

ATS

Austin Peay

72

46

37

155

6-12

5-8

Belmont

72

45

36

153

11-7

3-12

N. Colorado

72

47

38

157

11-6

5-5

Neb. Omaha

80

47

38

165

7-11

5-7

Niagara

72

47

37

156

2-14

5-10

Oakland

76

47

38

161

6-12

9-7

Portland St.

74

47

38

159

9-7

5-8

Samford

72

46

38

156

8-13

8-8

Siena

76

47

38

161

7-10

5-7

S. Utah

74

46

38

158

5-11

8-4

N.C. Greensboro

73

45

38

156

5-14

4-10

Washington St.

74

46

38

158

9-9

9-8

Wisc-Milwaukee

72

46

41

159

9-10

6-10

 

Before placing your NCAA Basketball bet, compare available betting odds 

As you would expect, the group of teams who allow as many points and as high as shooting percentage are losers both straight up and to the pointspread.  The combined record of these teams is 95-136 SU (41%) and 77-104 ATS (43%).  Quite simply, it is never easy to make bad defensive teams win for you!  Along with the other 3 articles, these lists can be an essential tool in approaching a NCAA Basketball pick. But always remember that, as with the other lists, you must employ fundamental handicapping when isolating your selections. That means looking to play on good rebounding teams, teams who take care of the basketball as represented by their TO margin and teams who take good shots as represented by their A/TO margin.  In addition, keep in mind that there are tools other than statistical handicapping.  These include situational analysis, home/road dichotomies, coaching personality profiles and other technical considerations.  

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