NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Top Offensive Teams 2015

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, January 17, 2015 5:20 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015 5:20 PM GMT

In addition to using sports handicapping methods such as home/road dichotomies, coaching personality profiles, situational analysis, current form, and injuries, this handicapper shares his favorite method.

Experienced College Basketball bettors know the great success that handicappers have had over the years in isolating teams when they run and pass for 200 yards against an opponent who does not. These '200 Club members' cover the spread 76% of the time.

The '230 Offensive Club' in CBKB is a similar way to handicap the offensive fortunes of a team. We look for a team to translate their good shooting percentages into an efficient offense. We use four “parameters.” All teams must meet these standards to assure offensive balance. When this occurs, and the sum of these indicators is 230 or higher, we have members of our '230 Club.'

Check out Joe Gavazzi's Top Defensive Rankings here.

Just like in football, it is important to look at other facets of the game when using statistical indicators. As a result, I have included in this article a team’s rebound margin, assists/TO margin, and TO margin as a way to show how important those aspects are to a successful offense. Remember that playing good defense, rebounding the basketball, taking good shots, and taking care of the basketball are the four major indicators of team success in this sport. For now, however, let’s isolate the members of our '230 Club.' All teams must meet the following minimum standards to be a member of the club. Statistics are through January 12, 2015.

1.      Score 75 or more points

2.      Shoot 46% or better from the field

3.      Shoot 36% or better from the 3 point arc

4.      Shoot 69% or better from the foul line

When these four numbers add up to 230 or higher, we have a member of the 230 Club.

 

Team

PPG

FG

%

3 PT

%

FT

%

TOT

SU

ATS

RBD

MGN

A/TO

MGN

TO

MGN

TOT

MGN

Arkansas

84

47

39

73

 

13-2

8-5

+5.1

+6.1

+4.8

+16.0

BYU

87

47

39

77

 

14-5

7-11

+5.4

+5.9

+1.9

+13.2

C Michigan

84

49

40

73

 

11-2

4-2

+6.5

+5.0

+2.6

+14.1

Davidson

85

48

41

74

 

11-3

10-1

+6.4

+7.5

+0.7

+14.6

Duke

84

51

38

71

 

14-1

7-6

+7.9

+5.3

+2.6

+15.8

E Wash

80

49

41

72

 

12-4

5-3

-0.1

+2.7

+1.4

+4.2

Evansville

76

52

36

74

 

12-4

8-5

+4.1

+5.0

+1.0

+10.1

Gonzaga

83

53

40

73

 

16-1

10-4

+10.0

+6.6

+2.2

+18.8

Idaho

78

46

42

73

 

7-7

6-4

+4.9

+1.8

-0.4

+6.3

Indiana

82

48

39

72

 

12-4

8-7

+3.5

+2.4

-0.8

+5.1

Iona

84

48

43

70

 

11-5

5-9

-3.9

+4.9

+0.7

+1.7

La Lafayette

83

50

38

69

 

10-5

6-3

+5.6

+0.2

-0.6

+5.2

Notre Dame

83

54

41

72

 

15-2

5-4

+3.1

+6.2

+3.0

+10.3

Ohio St

82

51

39

71

 

13-4

8-7

+3.7

+5.6

+5.9

+15.2

Toledo

75

46

40

74

 

9-6

5-6

+3.0

+1.1

-0.2

+3.9

Xavier

79

50

38

75

 

12-5

9-6

+4.8

+5.0

+2.2

+12.0

 

As you can see, putting the ball in the basket using offensive balance and efficiency has led to a 77% winning percentage for our teams with a combined record of 192-56. For our purposes, it is just as important to note that these teams have a combined record of 111-83 ATS, good for 57.2% winners. Remember in the above paragraph where I told you that the greatest indicator of success also included rebound margin, A/TO margin, and TO margin? Please note that when we deduct any team who has a negative in any one of those columns, we are left with teams who have a combined ATS record of 82-54 ATS, good for 60.3% winners. As a further way to isolate success from our set of winning numbers, consider that any team whose total margin is +10+ has a combined ATS mark of 76-51, also good for 60% winners. Finally, if you are looking to isolate a single column that correlates with point spread success for our '230 Offensive Club members,' consider that any member who has a rebound margin of +4.0 or higher is a combined 75-47 ATS, 61.5%.

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Using the 230 Club members in conjunction with the total margin column will clearly make you money, as it will isolate the members who have a rebound margin of +4 or more. But for a complete statistical approach to handicapping, remember to always use the Defensive Dandies as the basis of your analysis. This type of data is important in isolating fundamental advantages in CBK game. For final selections, you will be best served using additional methods such as home/road dichotomies, coaching personality profiles, situational analysis, current form, and injuries to complete your final card. Using the above methodology, I have isolated more net winners resulting in more net profit than any other bureau since 1979. Check our NCAA Basketball homepage for the latest in sports handicapping advice.

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