NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Top Defensive Teams 2015

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, January 17, 2015 5:20 PM GMT

Improve your NCAA Basketball picks by learning from this professional handicapper who shares tips on the top Defensive teams.

Check out Joe Gavazzi's Top Offensive Rankings here.

This is the 2nd list of NCAA Basketball Defensive Dandies for the 2015 season.  Numbers created in the chart below are through Monday, January 12, 2015.  Qualifications for Defensive Dandies include the following minimum standards necessary to be a part of the Defensive Dandy Club.

1.      Allow 67 or less points per game.

2.      Allow 40% or less field goal percentage.

3.      Allow 33% or less from behind the 3 point arc.

4.      DO NOT have a negative Assist/TO margin, TO margin, or rebound margin.

Now, let’s take a look at our 2nd list of teams that qualify as Defensive Dandies, along with their supporting fundamental margins.

PPGs and FG % are rounded to the nearest whole number for simplicity.

 

TEAM

PPG

FG

%

3 PT

%

TOT

SU

ATS

RBD

MGN

A/TO

MGN

TO

MGN

TOT

MGN

Arizona

60

39

32

130

14-2

8-8

6.6

2.5

2.6

11.7

Baylor

56

38

27

121

14-3

5-5

9.9

2.2

0.6

12.7

Bowling Green

58

39

31

128

10-3

9-1

2.8

2.2

2.0

7.0

E. Michigan

59

35

29

123

11-4

5-5

2.2

0.9

3.9

7.0

Florida

57

39

33

129

9-6

6-6

4.0

2.4

2.4

8.8

GA Southern

60

39

31

130

10-3

6-1

8.1

0.3

2.2

10.6

Gonzaga

61

38

32

130

16-1

10-4

10.0

6.6

2.2

18.8

Hofstra

66

40

31

136

13-4

5-4

2.7

4.0

2.5

9.2

Illinois

63

40

33

135

11-6

5-9

1.3

2.8

3.8

7.9

Iowa

60

39

31

130

11-4

5-7

3.6

2.8

3.2

8.6

Iowa St.

65

40

31

136

12-2

6-5

4.0

5.6

2.1

11.7

Kentucky

52

31

28

110

15-0

9-5

9.2

4.8

4.5

18.5

Maryland

61

37

28

125

15-2

6-7

4.3

1.1

0.4

5.8

Michigan St.

61

38

29

128

12-5

10-7

7.7

6.1

0.0

13.8

N. Carolina

65

36

26

127

12-4

10-6

10.8

5.0

1.2

17.0

N. Iowa

55

39

30

120

14-2

8-6

1.5

1.0

1.1

3.6

Notre Dame

62

40

33

135

15-2

5-4

3.0

6.2

3.0

12.2

Ohio St.

61

39

31

131

13-4

8-7

5.6

5.9

3.7

15.2

Oklahoma

59

36

28

124

11-4

9-4

2.5

0.4

2.0

4.9

ODU

56

36

29

124

13-2

9-3

7.2

2.0

0.8

10.0

Oregon St.

57

37

28

122

11-4

11-3

4.0

0.9

2.5

7.4

S. Carolina

60

35

29

124

9-4

6-5

6.8

1.2

1.4

9.4

Seton Hall

62

40

26

128

13-3

12-2

2.2

0.0

0.8

3.0

Syracuse

58

37

27

122

12.4

6.6

5.2

3.6

2.6

11.4

Texas A&M

62

40

29

130

9-5

6-5

3.0

2.4

2.2

7.6

UCSB

62

38

30

130

7-7

5-4

2.7

3.3

0.3

6.3

Utah

55

36

33

124

13-2

10-4

9.0

2.6

0.6

12.2

Villanova

61

40

30

130

15-1

10-5

4.0

4.3

4.1

12.4

Virginia

51

34

31

115

15-0

9-4

12.0

4.5

0.3

16.8

Wisc-GB

58

39

30

126

13-3

8-6

5.3

0.7

0.9

6.9

 

In addition to these 30 qualifying teams as Defensive Dandies, there is an additional list of 17 teams who are on the cusp of qualifying.  I always keep these teams on a separate list to watch their performance.  Many of these teams turn out to be a hidden gem in a college basketball season, who can go on under the radar pointspread runs.

As important as great defense is in winning basketball, there are other fundamentals which must also be in place.  For, it is important to control the boards (solid rebound margin), take care of the basketball (a positive TO margin), and take good shots (a positive Assist/TO ratio).  When we add these fundamental factors, we make the list even stronger.

Before placing your NCAA Basketball bet, compare available betting odds 

As a measure of just how successful these teams are for our purposes, consider that the 30 teams listed above are 368-98 SU (79.3%).  Also note that they are 227-148 ATS (60.5%).  Think long and hard about fading any of these Defensive Dandies when doing your handicapping each day.  These teams have all proven that great defense combined with strong fundamental basketball is a great measure of pointspread success. 

Though Defensive Dandies have been the most reliable statistical handicapping tool for experienced College Basketball bettors to use, do not forget to include my 230 Club Offensive Members in your statistical handicapping arsenal. This list is available as a separate article also published on this date.  For those who prefer that I do all the work, my CBKB and NBA selections, which are a blend of statistical handicapping, home/road dichotomies, coaching profiles, situational analysis, and technical trends are frequently shared on our NCAA Basketball picks page.