NCAA Basketball Betting: Top Seed Aggies To Take The Hardware In SEC Tournament

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, March 8, 2016 5:25 PM GMT

Most so-called experts have this SEC basketball tournament with only four bids, the fewest among the Power 5, below the Big East (5). See our NCAA basketball picks here. 

Respected sites like KenPom.com and Sagarin.com are also not high on this league, having them listed at sixth overall in the country. Top seeds Texas A&M and Kentucky are ranked 21st and 8th by Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin has them 18th and 11th by his numbers.

If neither wins the SEC tourney, this conference might only have one team seeded as high as a No.4 and unless LSU, Georgia, Mississippi or Florida manage to win the event, four bids look like the max.

Let's break down the NCAA basketball odds boards for this tournament from betonline.ag and who could should win it all.

Odds to Win The SEC Conference Tournament

1701

Kentucky

-110

1702

South Carolina

1200

1703

Texas A&M

375

1704

LSU

1600

1705

Florida

1000

1706

Vanderbilt

350

1707

Mississippi

3300

1708

Arkansas

3300

1709

Field

2000

 

View of the Favorite
Though upsets are commonplace in many conference tournaments, hard to fathom one of the Top 3 is not your winner based on talent and how the rest of the field is playing.

Though Kentucky is hardly the same team of the last several coach John Calipari has produced in the past six years in particular, they still have loads of talent. None of the big men are very good at generating their own shots, but point guard Tyler Ulis is playing as well at his position as anyone in the country and Jamal Murray can take games over with his shooting. The Wildcats should win and will have home court feel with Big Blue followers, yet they are only 6-8 SU and ATS outside Lexington.

After being a disappointment much of the season, Vanderbilt closed 7-3 (6-4 ATS) and knocked off Kentucky and Texas A&M at home. The Commodores strengths are three-point accuracy (39.0 percent, T-17th nationally) and ability to protect the rim (11th in blocked shots). They should benefit from playing in home city of Nashville and as No.5 seed would not face Kentucky until finals.

After looking like the best squad in the conference in the first part of the season, Texas A&M lost their way from Jan.27th to Feb.13th, going 1-5 SU and ATS. The Aggies did not fold and finished strong with six straight victories (5-1 ATS). The Aggies have one of the most experienced teams in the country with four senior starters who all contribute in different ways. Jalen Jones and Danuel House are dangerous weapons at the two forward spots, and they can use their length and athleticism to score against just about anyone.

 

Mostly Pretenders in the Rest of Field
South Carolina is the third seed, but has extremely unreliable offense. Since Jan.30th, coach Frank Martin's team has either shot over 48 percent (4 times) or under 40 percent (7 times), nothing in between. Hardly the kind of necessary shot-making needed to win three games.

No.4 LSU has been an enigma at 18-13 and like their superstar Ben Simmons, they tend to disappear in big moments and are dreadful 3-10 and 2-11 ATS when leaving Baton Rouge.

Florida is a shell of its former self and finished the season 1-4 SU and ATS, beating and covering only against Missouri and giving up over 50 percent of shots made in their last four.

Mississippi could give Kentucky a run in the quarter-finals if shots are dropping, but Rebels seem better suited to cover than beat the 'Cats.

If Georgia can shoot better than season average of 41.9 percent and connect on more than six 3's contest, with their defense and rebounding they could meet Kentucky in semi-finals.

Though it has been a very weird year in the SEC, hard to conceive any other teams even making the semis, let alone win the tournament.

 

Who Gets the Hardware?
Favored Kentucky has the easiest path, with its toughest opponent in the title game. For NCAA basketball picks, Vanderbilt is a solid choice, playing well, basically at home, but not sure they can win four times in four days, with the last three most likely against LSU, Texas A&M and the Wildcats.

This brings us to Texas A&M, who despite being top seed, is the third betting choice. In the year of experienced teams and players taking center stage, the Aggies talent and experience is the difference and they will cut down the nets from this view.