Monday's Sports Picks: Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends

Doug Upstone

Monday, March 2, 2015 6:47 PM GMT

March has arrived and for college basketball handicappers and those making sports picks, they start salivating for the “Madness” to begin with the anticipation building now on a daily basis. 

But before then we have the line moves which are occurring today and we need to keep a watchful eye on the betting odds and what that might mean. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (406-356 L142D)

 

NBA – Warriors vs. Nets 7:35 ET  CSN-BA, YES
Those overlooking the NBA odds and tonight’s game situation are forecasting less defense than the sportsbooks. This is Golden State’s fourth game in five nights, all on the road and yesterday they had to put out a great deal of energy to overcome a 26-point deficit to defeat Boston 106- 101. Brooklyn is back home after an eight-game road trip and teams after such a long sojourn are notorious for struggling in first game back home with one or fewer days rest. The total has shot up from 207 to 208.5. However, I’m going the other way since the Warriors are 10-1 UNDER on the road after playing in a contest in which both teams scored 100 or more points.  

NBA Pick – Play Under

 

NBA – Clippers vs. Timberwolves  8:05 ET  FS-PT, FS-N
After giving up 123 and 131 points in consecutive contests, the Los Angeles Clippers have clamped down on defense and surrendered 96.5 points a game in their last eight outings and 92.8 in their past five. Though Minnesota has been awful most of the season, with improved health they closed last month at 5-3-1 ATS and generally become more competitive. Those playing NBA picks are less concerned about the team’s current form and look at the past six matchups and see a 5-1 OVER mark and elevated the total from 205 to 207. I can see this one being accurate and L.A. is 9-1 OVER playing on the road in back to back games. 

NBA Pick – Play Over

 

NCAA Basketball – Baylor vs. Texas  7:00 ET ESPNU
In spite of trends to the contrary, Texas has been lifted from -2.5 to -3.5 in Austin. The Longhorns has fallen four straight times (2-2 ATS), while Baylor has reeled off four consecutive victories (3-1 ATS). No question part of why basketball bettors are supporting the Horns is because they should have won the two games they covered at Oklahoma and at Kansas, faltering in the final minutes. Though the Bears have won eight of last 11 Big 12 battles (7-4 ATS), there is always doubt about Scott Drew coached teams in varying situations. Texas is 14-3 SU at home recently in this state rivalry, but Baylor is playing like they know how to win and are 6-0 ATS this season after draining 50 percent or more from behind the arc. 

College Basketball Pick – Lean Baylor

 

NCAA Basketball – Boston College vs. Virginia Tech 9:00 ET   ESPNU
In a confrontation of two ACC squads just playing out the regular season, the visitor has generated enough attention to lower the spread from +1.5 to a Pick. After losing nine in row, Boston College shot a season-high 56.8 percent and ripped N.C. State 79-63 as 5.5-point home underdogs. Virginia Tech is just 2-14 (10-6 ATS) in ACC action and its current losing streak is up to five. However, the Eagles are 0-3 ATS after shooting over 50% in lined games this season and the Hokies are 7-1 ATS after exactly a trio of setbacks and I’ll throw my support their way as part of Monday's NCAA Basketball Picks.

College Basketball Pick – Lean Virginia Tech

 

Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend: New Orleans is 11-2 ATS playing on back-to-back days this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend: Virginia is 11-2 ATS away after a game where they failed to cover the spread  in NCAA Basketball odds the last two seasons. 

NHL Money Line Trend for Canadiens vs. Sharks: San Jose is 1-10 at home having lost three of their last four games this season.