Michigan vs. Villanova: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds
Michigan has defied expectations thus far by advancing to the second weekend of March Madness as a No. 11 seed. The Wolverines won’t have such an easy time extending their tournament dreams against their next opponent, however, as Villanova has plenty of experience in these situations, as well as the talent to thrive in them. Check out our Michigan-Villanova March Madness odds and picks.
It’s been a pretty ho-hum path for Jay Wright’s team in 2022, but Villanova is once again knocking on the door of a Final Four appearance. Meanwhile, Michigan has made the most of its March journey under Juwan Howard, and the Wolverines surely have no intentions of being bullied into submission after coming this far.
Two storied programs, one spot in the Elite Eight.
Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s college basketball matchup between Michigan and Villanova (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Michigan vs. Villanova Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, March 24, 7:15 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
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Michigan vs. Villanova Odds Analysis
The line opened at Villanova -5 and has remained at that number at both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. There's been considerable action at that number, particularly from sharp bettors, with 72% of the handle on Villanova on just 54% of the tickets. Villanova is 18-15-2 against the spread this season, while Michigan is 15-18 ATS.
The total has dropped from its opening mark of 137, down to 135.5 at DraftKings and to 135 at FanDuel. Sharp action has been on the Under with 85% of the total money. That’s an interesting trend, as Michigan games have gone 20-13 to the Over this season, with Villanova coming in at 17-17-1.
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Michigan vs. Villanova Picks
Villanova -5 (-110) ???Under 135.5 (-110) ?????
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Michigan vs. Villanova Predictions
Villanova -5 (-110)
This line is right on the money, as Michigan shouldn’t win the game but has shown enough to be considered a viable threat against even the most talented teams in the country. However, Villanova is the superior team with the ability to slow down Michigan’s top-20 offense.
The Wildcats will use their No. 345 adjusted tempo and quality defensive metrics to keep the Wolverines in check. On the other side, Villanova has a distinct advantage against a Michigan defense that falls outside the top 75 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Similar to the way Villanova disposed of Ohio State in the Round of 32, the Wildcats are just too good offensively for Michigan to match them, possession for possession. Though Villanova is No. 8 in the nation in offensive efficiency, the Wildcats don’t have to score 80-plus points to get this done. Villanova's slow, methodical brand of basketball will squeeze the life out of Michigan, just as it did the Buckeyes.
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Under 135.5 (-110)
Villanova beat Ohio State by a score of 71-61 in the previous round, and this game is shaping up to end in similar fashion. Though both teams rate better on the offensive end than defensively, Villanova's glacial pace will help this Under. The Wolverines’ scoring success against Tennessee in the second round was against a team much more willing to play with a quick tempo.
Hunter Dickenson and Eli Brooks, who both had excellent scoring outputs in their last game, will have to work harder to earn quality looks on the offensive end, as Villanova doesn't give up anything easy. That’s a challenge the Michigan stars should struggle with en route to the Wolverines’ lowest scoring output of March.
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Where to Bet on March Madness
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March Madness odds and best bets made 3/22/2022 at 10:07 p.m. ET.