Miami vs. Duke Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Jan. 14
Two programs trending in entirely different directions meet on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C. as Duke hosts Miami.
- Our Miami vs. Duke prediction and odds expect the Blue Devils to live up to their billing as the March Madness odds favorites
- Coming off a 42-point performance against Notre Dame, Duke freshman Cooper Flagg leads the Wooden Award odds
- With Miami 0-4 since Jim Larranaga stepped down as head coach, the Hurricanes are a 23-point underdog at our March Madness betting sites
Miami vs. Duke predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Duke -23 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami vs. Duke ATS prediction
Duke to cover the spread: -23 ⭐⭐⭐
It's hard to believe this Miami program is just two years removed from a Final Four appearance. Since then, the Hurricanes are 19-29 - including 4-12 this season - and Larranaga, the program's all-time winningest coach, has stepped down.
What already looked like a lost team under Larranaga looks even worse with interim head coach Bill Courtney leading the charge. The Hurricanes are allowing 76.2 points per game (300th in the country) and sit 308th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Miami doesn't have what it takes to slow down a Duke offense that's first in the ACC in O-Rate, per EvanMiya - the Hurricanes are giving up 79.4 PPG in conference play. The freshman duo of Flagg and Kon Knueppel will simply be too much for Courtney's team.
And while Miami's offense is respectable, this Duke defense is sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6) and second in adjusted defensive efficiency. So while this is a large spread, I'm backing Duke to cover for the 11th time this season and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Best Miami vs. Duke pick
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Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Duke is going to win by 24-plus points, it means Flagg is going to continue to play at a ridiculous level. While going for 42 again is a big ask, the freshman phenom should cruise past 20.5 against this horrendous defense.
The future No. 1 pick in the NBA draft has proven in recent weeks that he can not only win around the rim and get to the charity stripe but also be a lethal shooter from behind the arc. Flagg is averaging 27.2 PPG in his last four games and has gone 9-for-14 from three (64.3%).
That sharpshooting will come in handy against a defense that's 354th in 3-point percentage allowed (37.5%) and last in the ACC in D-Rate. With Flagg sitting 11th in the country in OBPR, I expect him to go for 21-plus for the fifth time in seven games.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Live Miami vs. Duke odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Miami vs. Duke opening odds
- Spread: Miami +24 (-110) | Duke -24 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 (-110) | Under 147.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +2500 | Duke -10000
Miami vs. Duke game info
- When: Tuesday, Jan. 14
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Duke -23 (-110 via Caesars)
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