March Madness Underdogs Worthy of NCAA Basketball Picks in Neutral Courts

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 2:12 PM GMT

The following list of 26 teams represents approximately 10% of all teams who are lined. The common characteristics they share are that they have won 67% or more of their combined road and neutral games.

With the end of the regular season in college basketball, teams are now playing nearly 100% of their games on neutral courts. With that being the case, we now include neutral court games in our data. The following list of 26 teams represents approximately 10% of all teams who are lined. The common characteristics they share are that they have won 67% or more of their combined road and neutral games. Let’s examine the list of 26 teams to see if there are any areas of excellence that we can pursue in our quest for profit between now and the Final Four.

Remember that when we examined our list at the beginning of March, we learned that in pure road games these teams were a combined 81-35 ATS as underdog to -5-. 

 

TEAM

A+N

SU

A+N

ATS

A+N

ATS DOG

A+N

P TO -5-

A+N

-6+

Arizona

11-3

8-6

1-0

2-1

5-5

BYU

11-5

10-6

1-2

2-2

7-2

Cal Davis

10-5

10-4

6-3

4-1

0-0

Colorado St

11-4

6-8

1-3

2-4

3-1

Duke

13-2

9-6

4-0

1-1

4-5

Gonzaga

14-1

6-9

1-0

2-0

3-9

Hofstra

12-6

9-6

2-3

7-2

0-1

Kentucky

12-0

6-6

0-0

1-0

5-6

Louisville

9-3

7-5

2-0

3-2

2-3

Maryland

8-4

7-4

4-2

2-2

1-0

Miami Fla

10-5

10-5

6-0

1-5

3-0

Mississippi

11-4

13-2

7-2

4-0

2-0

Murray St

13-4

8-9

2-1

4-2

    2-6     

N Carolina

11-5

11-5

1-2

4-2

6-1

N Iowa

14-3

14-3

3-1

3-1

8-1

Notre Dame

9-3

7-5

2-1

3-4

2-0

SMU

8-4

4-8

2-1

2-3

0-4

Valpo

13-4

11-4

4-1

6-2

1-1

VCU

10-5

8-7

1-2

4-3

3-2

Villanova

13-2

10-5

0-0

7-1

3-4

Virginia

13-1

10-4

0-0

4-1

6-3

WVU

11-5

      9-6     

4-4

3-0

2-2

Wichita St

13-4

10-8

1-0

3-1

6-7

Wisconsin

13-2

10-5

0-0

3-0

7-5

Wofford

13-5    

10-9

1-4

6-0

3-5

Yale

13-6

12-3

5-2

5-1

2-0

 

Much like the conclusions we have drawn in only the road records of these teams, the above chart points out not only the overall profit of this group at 234-148 ATS (good for 61.2% winners), but also the profit that is available at a higher percentage point when we limit the point spread to our teams being favored by fewer than 6 points on the NCAA Basketball Odds. The record of these teams from DOG to -5- is 149-75 ATS (good for 66.5% winners). With these teams playing almost exclusively road and neutral games from here to the end of the season, make sure to take a long look at these Road Runners in their preferred role, while being careful to eliminate games in which they are playing each other. 

Remember that point spread research of teams in defined roles is just one way in which a college basketball game should be handicapped. Most important is the fundamental matchup often defined by their statistical profile. In addition, there are long term coaching personality profiles, as well as situational considerations. Best of luck in the remainder of the 2015 CBKB season from here through the Final Four!

Don't Forget to Visit Our NCAA Basketball Picks for More Updates