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Mike Miles Jr. of the TCU Horned Frogs shoots the ball as we look at our top TCU vs. Gonzaga prediction
Mike Miles Jr. of the TCU Horned Frogs shoots the ball against Devan Cambridge of the Arizona State Sun Devils during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Ball Arena on Mar. 17, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images via AFP.

The TCU Horned Frogs escaped a thriller to advance and face the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Here is our best TCU vs. Gonzaga prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

There were a lot of great games in the first round, but the best from start to finish may have been the Horned Frogs against the Arizona State Sun Devils. Both teams went on huge runs to build up big leads, but the other opponent kept fighting back. In the end, the Horned Frogs erased an 8-point deficit with 4:38 remaining to secure the win.

Things weren’t quite as dramatic for the Bulldogs. Though they led by just four at halftime, they opened up a 21-point lead midway through the second half on their way to an easy victory. Guard Julian Strawther had 28 points, while forward Drew Timme had 21.

Here is our best TCU vs. Gonzaga prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

TCU vs. Gonzaga odds

TCU vs. Gonzaga prediction

TCU +4.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a perfect line to back the Horned Frogs. They're getting two full baskets against  a team they can easily beat, and because of early betting trends, this line looks destined to swell.

Drawing a team from the First Four is no easy task. Two of those teams went to the Final Four, and in all but one year, at least one from the First Four advanced to the Round of 32. For the Horned Frogs to sneak away with the victory against the Sun Devils is much more impressive than they're given credit for.

Check out our March Madness best bets and all of our top NCAA Tournament picks for Sunday

One of the main reasons the Horned Frogs can pull this upset off is their guard play. Mike Miles Jr. scored 26 against the Devils, and he was electric down the stretch. This season, he averages 17.6 points per game. Defensively, he and teammate Damion Baugh average a combined 3.0 steals per game.  

The Zags' weakness is their backcourt. Strawther looked great against the Grand Canyon Antelopes, but he's had great performances against weak teams all season. However, he scored 20 just once against a ranked opponent. The Horned Frogs can let Timme get 20-25 points, as long as they stop Strawther. Based on what they've done all year, they should be able to.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

TCU vs. Gonzaga best odds

FanDuel (-106)

TCU +4.5TCU +4.5TCU +4.5TCU +4.5TCU +4.5

Each of the five major sportsbooks offer the same spread for this game. FanDuel is the only one with a price of less than -110, which makes FD the easy choice to place this bet.

Be on alert for some movement in this one as the Zags received all of the early love from the public. If you wait, you may be able to get this at 5.5 or 6. 

TCU vs. Gonzaga odds analysis

The Bulldogs opened as 4.5-point favorites, and while they're still favored by that number, it's just a matter of time before the spread moves further in their favor. 69% of bettors backed the Bulldogs. The Zags are a public team, and the Horned Frogs barely survived Friday. This support isn’t surprising, even if it is unwarranted.

The total for this one opened at 156.5, and that's where it still stands. 64% of bettors backed the Under, but oddsmakers haven't moved the line yet. Even though this number is really high, it's well within reach for these two teams.

TCU vs. Gonzaga game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 19, 9:40 PM
  • TV: TBS
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TCU vs. Gonzaga pick made 3/18/2023 at 10:07 a.m. ET.

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