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Miami vs. UConn Predictions, Odds & Picks: Can Hurricanes Pull Off Another March Madness Upset?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: April 1, 2023 4:03 PM EDT • 3 min 46 sec read.

Head coach Jim Larrañaga of the Miami Hurricanes talks with Wooga Poplar during the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.
Head coach Jim Larrañaga of the Miami Hurricanes talks with Wooga Poplar during the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

The Miami Hurricanes are making their first Final Four appearance in program history, and they will take on the four-time national champion UConn Huskies. Here is our best Miami vs. UConn prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

When the NCAA Tournament bracket came out, many believed the Huskies should have been higher than a No. 4 seed. In the four games since, they’ve proved those supporters correct. They’ve won their four contests by an average of 22.5 points, and they’ve yet to allow a team to score more than 65 points against them.

The Hurricanes have been equally impressive on the offensive end, even if their margin of victory isn’t quite at UConn’s historic level. They have scored more than 85 points in three consecutive games, including an 89-point performance against the Houston Cougars.

Will Miami’s defense, which is ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency, hold up? Or will UConn continue its dominance in the tournament?

Here is our best Miami vs. UConn prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami vs. UConn odds

Miami vs. UConn prediction

Miami Over 72.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is always the chance that the Hurricanes’ defense finally proves too much for them to overcome and the Huskies win this one running away. But even if this scenario takes place, the Canes are going to score points.

The Canes are averaging 79.6 points per game this season, and they have three consecutive contests with 85 or more points. The Huskies’ defense is very good, but this Hurricanes’ offense is clicking right now, no matter who they go up against.

Many may look at the Huskies' game against the Gonzaga Bulldogs and think their defense is unstoppable. However, Drew Timme got into foul trouble in that game, and the Zags' offense played into the strength of the Huskies’ defense. The Canes use their guards to score, and there is no one player whose absence would stop them from putting points on the board.

In addition to every single player in their starting five being able to score, the Hurricanes will benefit from the Huskies also pushing the pace. They average 78.8 points per game and have scored over 80 in three of their four games this tournament. There may be some nerves early, but these two teams are designed to score.

We like the Canes' number because it is significantly lower than where it should be.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Miami vs. UConn best odds

FanDuel (-104)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Over 72.5Over 72.5N/AN/AOver 71.5
-105-104N/AN/A-125

There is no benefit to taking the lower number at PointsBet because the price is simply too high. This number is well below where it should be based on how the Canes have played of late, so you could even consider waiting to see what number BetMGM and Caesars produce when the time comes.

However, if betting now, go with FanDuel, which is offering a slightly better price than DraftKings for the same total.

Miami vs. UConn odds analysis

Though the Huskies are overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets based on the four teams remaining, they haven’t seen as much support as you might think ahead of this game.

The spread opened with the Huskies favored by 5.5, and the line has not moved because only 55% of bettors are backing them to cover. If there hasn’t been movement yet, don’t expect there to be as Saturday’s tipoff gets closer.

As for the total, 63% of bettors are backing the Over in this game, but that has not resulted in much line movement at all. The total opened at 149.5, and it has actually dropped at some of the major sportsbooks. This is the biggest moment any of these players have ever been in, so perhaps oddsmakers are expecting nerves to play a key role.

Miami vs. UConn game info

  • Date: Saturday, April 1, 8:49 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Miami vs. UConn pick made 03/30/2023 at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.