Kent State vs. Indiana Predictions, Odds & Picks: Hoosiers on March Madness Upset Watch?
In the Midwest region, the fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers will face the 13th-seeded Kent State Golden Flashes for a spot in the Round of 32. Read on for our Kent State vs. Indiana prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
For as much history comes with the Indiana basketball program, the Hoosiers haven’t fared well in the NCAA Tournament of late. They last made the Round of 32 in 2016 and haven’t made it to an Elite Eight since 2002.
This year’s Indiana squad (22-11) certainly has the talent to make it to the second weekend, but it might have drawn the worst possible opening-round matchup. With former Indiana assistant Rob Senderoff at the helm, Kent State (28-6) is dancing for the first time since 2017 and is a trendy Cinderella pick for a reason.
But what will happen when these two teams meet on Friday in Albany?
Here is our best Kent State vs. Indiana prediction (odds via WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Kent State vs. Indiana odds
Kent State vs. Indiana prediction
Kent State +4.5 (-108 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐
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The unfortunate part about betting in March Madness is that you aren’t always going to get the best of the number. This line started at 5.5, but smart bettors gobbled that spread up pretty quickly. Kent State is playable at +4 or better, and this would be a four-star play at anything +5 or higher.
Indiana really did get a tough draw in this 4-13 matchup.
The Golden Flashes rank 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are top 60 in average Division I experience. They have a do-everything senior point guard in Sincere Carry, who is averaging 17.6 points and 4.9 assists per contest. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a Cinderella team, right?
Check out our March Madness best bets for Friday! Our Mike Spector went 3-1 on Thursday's games.
In this particular matchup, Kent State is going to double Indiana big man Trayce Jackson-Davis in the post a lot. It's a strategy that Kansas used in its thumping of Indiana in December, if you want to go back and see how Jackson-Davis and Co. will handle it.
The Golden Flashes are also elite at defending the pick-and-roll, which tends to be what the Hoosiers want to utilize with Jalen Hood-Schifino and Jackson-Davis. Kent State ranks in the 99th percentile in the country at guarding the ball handler and the 93rd percentile in defending the roll man, according to Synergy Sports Technology.
Personally, I think Kent State wins outright given the nuances of this matchup. I do project this spread under a possession, so I see value in taking the points with the Golden Flashes. Let’s end the opening round with an upset, shall we?
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Kent State vs. Indiana best odds
WynnBet (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | WynnBET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4 | +4.5 | +4.5 | +4 | +4.5 |
| -110 | -115 | -120 | -110 | -108 |
If you're betting on college basketball games this late in the week, you want as much of a discount as possible.
Fortunately, WynnBET is offering -108 vig on all NCAA Tournament sides and totals. As long as the number is the same as consensus, chances are this will be your preferred shop for any opening-round action.
In this case, WynnBET is the best choice with every other sportsbook offering a juiced 4.5 or bumping the spread down to 4 entirely. If you don’t have access to WynnBET, FanDuel’s -115 vig on the 4.5-point spread is the best you're going to get.
Kent State vs. Indiana odds analysis
Indiana opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but that line is long gone by now. The Hoosiers are laying a consensus of 4.5 points as of Friday morning with 59% of the action on Kent State. The total has dropped down to 139 after opening at 141.
So far this season, Kent State is 21-10-1 against the spread and 19-12-1 to the Under. Indiana is 15-17-1 ATS and 19-13-1 to the Over.
Kent State vs. Indiana game info
- Date: Friday, March 17, 9:55 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Kent State-Indiana pick made 3/15/2023 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
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