March Madness Expert Picks for Friday: Can Saint Peter's Continue Miracle Run?

Here are our top March Madness expert picks for Friday's Sweet 16 games. Who'll advance to the Elite Eight?

Our college basketball experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Friday's March Madness Sweet 16 matchups (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday's March Madness Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: March Madness Picks, Odds, and Printable Bracket

Top March Madness Expert ATS Picks

Iowa State +3 (-110 via DraftKings)

Iowa State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll but has overcome those low expectations and can clinch a berth in the Elite Eight. No matter what the Cyclones do, it still seems they have their doubters, especially with many believing they are not the same team away from Hilton Coliseum. However, Iowa State has two road wins against tournament teams (Creighton, TCU) and more than proved their worth in a loaded Big 12 this year.

Iowa State’s calling card is defense, as they rank in the top seven in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover percentage defense, and 3-point percentage allowed. That is the perfect foil for a Miami team loaded with talented guards. Their ability to create off the dribble is a big reason the Hurricanes rank 67th in percentage of their points coming from 2-point range at 55.1%. But while the bigger, but slower, USC Trojans and Auburn Tigers had trouble staying in front of Miami’s guards, Iowa State has quicker and more versatile defenders. Thus, they will force Miami to be more perimeter-oriented than usual.

The Hurricanes are 0-5 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as favorites. We like Iowa State to extend that streak to six games in a matchup they can win outright. - Spector

Purdue -12.5 (-110 via Caesars)

The Saint Peter's Peacocks may have been the Cinderella story of the first round, but they'll be up against it in their Sweet 16 matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers on Friday.

It was impressive to shock Kentucky in the round of 64, followed by a win over Murray State, but to win in the Sweet 16 is another story. Teams that play in the round of 32 don't have the luxury of reviewing the film and developing a game plan for five days. Saint Peter's will not do anything that will surprise Purdue on Friday. This has always been the secret to Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim's success in the NCAA tournament with his 2-3 zone. The turnaround between the first round and the second round is just too fast, and teams cannot properly prepare.

Purdue's size on the interior is likely to pose a significant challenge to the Peacocks in this contest. In Saint Peter's game against Kentucky, Oscar Tshiebwe scored 30 points and grabbed 16 rebounds. The Peacocks actually played Providence on Nov. 27, Friars forwards Noah Horchler and Nate Watson combined to score 48 points and grab 17 rebounds. The Peacocks will have a difficult time defending Zach Edey and Trevion Williams on the interior.

Currently, 68% of tickets and 62% of cash are on Saint Peter's point spread in this matchup. This appears to be a classic example of people betting on what they want to happen rather than what they believe will actually occur. The Cinderella story creates a compelling narrative, and Purdue is not as popular with the betting public. My confidence in Purdue increases with more money showing up on the Peacocks, and I will gladly fade the public in this spot. I believe Purdue is capable of covering the -12.5 point spread comfortably. - Metler

UCLA -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

With Arizona going down, UCLA once again is the last Pac-12 Conference team standing in the NCAA Tournament. From a betting perspective, the Bruins continue to be undervalued. While North Carolina and the entire ACC have exceeded expectations in the tournament, UCLA has easily been the more consistent team of the two this season.

For basically the entire campaign, UCLA has been ranked in the top-10 of both the KenPom ratings and the College Basketball NET. Entering the Sweet 16, Mick Cronin’s squad sits at eighth overall in KenPom. Furthermore, the Bruins boast top-20 rankings in both adjusted offensive (No. 12) and defensive (No. 14) efficiency. A high ranking in both categories has been a tell-tale sign of national championship-caliber teams in years past.

In reality, bettors can look to UCLA’s Pac-12 cohort in Arizona for proof that experience matters in the deeper rounds of the tournament. Like the Houston Cougars team that overwhelmed Arizona on Thursday night, UCLA knows all about deep NCAA Tournament runs. This year’s Bruins outfit is largely comprised of the same key contributors who advanced all the way to last year’s Final Four.

For North Carolina, this has been an extremely inconsistent season. While the offense looked great last weekend, one has to expect some regression, especially against a stiff UCLA defense. Tyger Campbell and Johnny Juzang are two savvy veteran scorers who are both capable of coming up clutch when the Bruins need it most. - John

Kansas -7 (-110 via DraftKings)

As the final remaining No. 1 seed alive in this NCAA Tournament after Thursday night's carnage, Kansas is a good bet to survive and advance on Friday. The Jayhawks take on a Providence team that frankly has not yet been challenged in this tournament. The Friars were actually underestimated by the sportsbooks in wins and covers over South Dakota State and Richmond, but those are two opponents that don't come remotely close to the caliber of Kansas.

The Jayhawks have shown consistency offensively with impressive scoring by walloping Texas Southern and slicing through a pretty stout Creighton defense. Their skill and the tempo with which they use it are two factors that will overwhelm a Providence team that prefers to slow things down on the court. I like Kansas by double-digits as the bubble finally bursts for a Friar's group that played well last weekend as the big fish in a small pond for their segment of the bracket. - Schaeffer

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Parlay Picks for Thursday

Top March Madness Expert O/U Picks

Purdue-Saint Peter’s Over 135 (-110 via FanDuel)

Saint Peter’s is in the Sweet 16 primarily because of a solid defense that takes opponents out of their comfort zone. However, while the Peacocks rank in the top 16 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed, they have not faced an offense all season as versatile and dangerous as Purdue’s.

The issues for Saint Peter’s start with figuring out how to defend 7’4” Zach Edey. The Peacocks have not seen any player like him (not many teams have), and he will present problems for a frontcourt without a player taller than 6’8”. If Saint Peter’s chooses to play zone, the Boilermakers have one of the best zone offenses in the country and would get players like Sasha Stefanovic going much more than if he faced man-to-man.

On the other end, Purdue is not known for its defensive prowess, as they rank 346th in the country at forcing turnovers. In addition, while Purdue can cause mismatches against the Peacocks defense, Saint Peter’s can draw Purdue’s bigs away from the basket and break them down off the dribble with versatile wings. It should be a fascinating chess match between Purdue head coach Matt Painter and Saint Peter's head coach Shaheen Holloway, but we should also not see much defense played. - Spector

Providence-Kansas Over 141.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Originally set at 142, the total for this game has since dropped half of a point to 141.5. It has held steady at 141.5 for multiple days and is the consensus number among numerous sportsbooks.

According to KenPom, Kansas has the sixth-best adjusted offensive efficiency in college basketball. Providence has not faced many opponents this season with an offensive efficiency this high. They have only faced one opponent this season with a KenPom offensive efficiency rating in the top 10. It was the Villanova Wildcats, and in their two games against Villanova, a total of 173 and 150 points were scored.

KenPom predicts that this game will end with a total score of 145 points. That is 3.5 points more than the current total posted at DraftKings. With an adjusted tempo ranked 345th in the country, Villanova was able to score 89 and 76 points against Providence. Imagine what Kansas is capable of with an adjusted tempo ranked 64th in the country.

Providence will probably end up playing this game at the pace Kansas prefers. In light of the KenPom projection, Kansas' tempo, and what Villanova has done to Providence in the past, I lean towards the Over 141.5 in this matchup. - Metler

Saint Peter’s-Purdue Under 133.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

The true David versus Goliath matchup of the Sweet 16 features the highest power-rated team from the Big Ten Conference in Purdue against tiny Saint Peter's from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. While Purdue has not been immune to disappointing NCAA Tournament upsets in recent years, the best betting angle for this game figures to be the total. 

Jaden Ivey leads a lethal Boilermakers offense that ranks third in the country in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom. However, the Boilermakers don't play at a very fast pace. With big men Trevion Williams and Zach Edey representing such a key part of Purdue’s offensive game, it’s no surprise that a lightning-fast tempo is not necessarily this team’s preference. Both Purdue and Saint Peter's average similarly slow adjusted tempos, as both land outside of the top-230 in that category.

Looking at this deeper from the Peacocks’ side of things, SPU also quietly boasts a top-30 defensive efficiency ranking. The Peacocks will not shoot over 50% from the field collectively on Friday as they did against Kentucky. - John

North Carolina-UCLA Over 142 (-110 via DraftKings) 

Friday's match-up between North Carolina and UCLA feels almost like a redux of the game we saw between the Tar Heels and the Baylor Bears on Saturday. UNC's top 20 offense by adjusted efficiency and accelerated pace that ranks 32nd will force an extremely talented top 15 offensive team in UCLA to speed up the tempo to a faster rate than it prefers.

UCLA wants to run at a more reserved pace based on how the Bruins have operated all year. But make no mistake, UCLA has the offensive chops to get after it in the style of game the Tar Heels want to play. The notion that both teams need only to reach 71 points to push this game Over feels like a gift given the scoring prowess of these teams. Both teams could reach the upper-70s or even push for 80 points while the other refuses to stay below that 70-75 range. This game will see scoring, so give me the Over. - Schaeffer

Where to Bet on March Madness

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