Arkansas vs. UConn Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Muss Bus Continue March Madness Ride?
A spot in the Elite Eight is on the line when the eighth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks face the fourth-seeded UConn Huskies on Thursday. Read on for our Arkansas vs. UConn predictions based on the top NCAAB odds.
After knocking off top-seeded Kansas, Eric Musselman's Razorbacks need one more win to reach the Elite Eight for the third straight season. Dan Hurley's Huskies are standing in the way, and coming off arguably the most-impressive opening weekend of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
UConn rolled past Iona and Saint Mary's during two convincing performances, returning to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the team's national championship run in 2014. Arkansas, meanwhile, needed a double-digit comeback during the second half to knock off Kansas in the closing seconds of its Round of 32 upset.
Here is our best Arkansas vs. UConn prediction (odds via Barstool Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Arkansas vs. UConn odds
Arkansas vs. UConn prediction
Andre Jackson Jr. Over 3.5 assists (-107 via Barstool Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Both the spread and total are right in line with my projection, so we need to look elsewhere. Jackson's assist prop offers the best value, as his play could prove to be pivotal for the Huskies on Thursday.
The 6-foot-6 UConn wing is second on the team with an assist rate of 25.2%, which is also 181st in the nation, according to Ken Pomeroy. He's 87th in all of college basketball with an average of 4.4 assists per game, and Jackson is coming off a seven-dime performance against Saint Mary's when his prop was set at 2.5.
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Jackson has recorded seven assists in back-to-back games and cleared this total in five of his last six contests. He's averaging six assists per game across his six outings since the calendar flipped to March.
Jackson thrives in transition, when he ranks in the 70th percentile in the country, according to Synergy Sports Technology. The Razorbacks, who are 180th in turnover rate and 317th in 3-point shooting, often let opposing teams get out in transition on them. Their matchup against the Jayhawks illustrated that issue.
Given that Jackson crushed his assist prop against a Saint Mary's team that wants to slow the pace down, I like the idea of backing his Over in a potential track meet. Take advantage of this four-star play while the price is right.
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Arkansas vs. UConn best odds
|Over 3.5 assists||Over 4.5 assists||Over 3.5 assists||Over 3.5 assists||Over 3.5 assists|
Most sportsbooks have set this line at 3.5, but FanDuel is offering the prop at 4.5. While the plus-money price on the Over is appealing, I prefer taking advantage of the -108 value through Barstool. However, feel free to sprinkle some extra cash on the Over at FanDuel for the ladder opportunity.
Jackson has cleared this assist total in 83% of his games during March, so we would take this Over up to -125 on 3.5 assists. At -107, Jackson has been given an implied probability of 51.7% to finish with four-plus assists against Arkansas. We like those odds.
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Arkansas vs. UConn odds analysis
UConn opened as a 4-point favorite, with the line then quickly dropping to 3.5 at most of our top-rated sportsbooks. The total has remained at 140 since betting lines were first released, though there are some shops sitting at 139.5. As of Thursday morning, 59% of the betting action is supporting UConn.
Arkansas is 18-16-1 against the spread and 20-14-1 to the Under in 2022-23. UConn is 23-11-1 ATS and 19-16 to the Over entering Thursday's tilt. The Over is backed by 59% of the betting action.
Arkansas vs. UConn game info
- Date: Thursday, March 23, 7:15 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Arkansas-UConn pick made 03/22/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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