Look to Home/Road Dichotomy & ATS Betting Trends Before Placing NCAA Basketball Pick on This AAC Matchup

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, February 4, 2015 5:04 PM GMT

This is an American Athletic Conference matchup truly worth a wager as the NCAA Basketball odds favor Temple by 6 points against South Florida. Find out how you should place your pick.

Temple (-6-) vs. S. Florida 6:30 ET ESPN News
Tonight's ACC battle is a replay of a matchup that was contested in Philly on January 22nd.  The Owls won that contest (73-48).  As a handicapper, we are faced with the challenge to decide whether Temple will be complacent in this contest, following that victory or whether the dominance is such that it will be repeated.  To do this, we must examine the events of what has happened since that meeting, a look at the home/road dichotomy in this game and the fundamentals of that first matchup.  In that first meeting, just 13 days ago, Temple limited S. Florida to 31% from the field, including only (3) 3 pointers.

S. Florida is coming off a 3-15 SU season in AAC action.  A change of coach to 1st year mentor Orlando Antigua has seen little improvement in the Bulls’ record.  For the season, they are 7-15 SU, including 1-8 SU in league play.  They enter tonight losers of 3 consecutive games.  They did cover a big number against a disinterested Tulsa team on Saturday, losing 78-71 as 15 point road dog in NCAA Basketball odds.  But, their recent play has been negatively impacted by the loss of one of their best players, interior force Chris Perry, who has been sidelined with a chest injury since late January.  Nonetheless, USF has covered their last 3 contests, all as double digit underdog.  Even in those defeats, however, they were badly outmanned.  In fact, 6 of their 7 defeats in the losing streak have all been by 7 or more points with the average margin of defeat being more than 15 PPG.  A big reason for their problems has been an offense that averages just 63 PPG, including 4 triples per game at less than 30% from behind the arc.  They shoot just 62% from the stripe and commit more than 14 TOs per game. 

Beginning with that S. Florida victory, Temple has gone 3-0 SU ATS (following 0-3 SU ATS).  Those victories have come by margins of 25, 24 and 17 points in which they Owls have allowed only 49 PPG.  In fact, since the Temple transfers have become eligible in mid-December, the Owls are 9-3 SU with 8/9 victories by 8 or more points.  Ninth year HC Dunphy has long been successful in this role, standing 41-22 ATS as road chalk, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

With S. Florida just 1-6 ATS on this court when not receiving 10 or more points, I can only recommend a play on the Temple Owls tonight, as they continue their domination of another inferior opponent, motivated by the fact that their 3 recent victories have allowed them to ascend to bubble status for the NCAA Tourney. 

NCAA Basketball Picks: Take Temple -6.5 at Pinnacle

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