Lock St. Mary's To Take Home Win Over Gonzaga For Your NCAA Basketball Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 21, 2016 6:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016 6:12 PM UTC

Gonzaga travels to Moraga tonight to face their arch-rival, the St. Mary’s Gaels. Don't miss our betting preview here and find out Gavazzi's top NCAA basketball picks for this game.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: St. Mary's -229
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s (-3) 11:00 ET ESPN
Though the 2 teams are tied at 6-1 SU in the standings, the Gaels, in my opinion, are clearly the better team.

Much was expected of Gonzaga when the season began. A mammoth interior consisted of Karnowski, Sabonis and Wiltjer, ballyhooed to be the best in the nation. It was almost an afterthought that long-time guards, Pangos and Bell, had departed. For the last month, Karnowski has been lost for the season. And this year’s perimeter by committee has left much to be desired compared to the Pangos/Bell era. Already, at their McCarthy Court home, there have been 3 losses to Arizona, UCLA and BYU. Though, they have won all 3 road games at Washington St., Santa Clara and San Fran, they have failed to cover the number in any of those. The record of 17th year HC Few as underdog is respectable at 43-32 ATS. But, much of that was recorded in the years when the Zags were looking to gain respect. Today, this line represents a PERCEPTION/REALITY number with the truth being that St. Mary’s is the better team. 


Betting Analysis
Tonight’s host is the biggest overachiever on the college basketball landscape this season. Though, it should really come as no surprise considering the work that 15th year HC Randy Bennett has done in Moraga. A perennial challenger to Gonzaga for league superiority, Bennett entered this season with no RS. But, he has taken a group of blue-collar workers and Australian imports and molded them into a team that is 14-2 SU, 12-2 ATS. Look at their BRAT status to confirm their excellence. On offense, St. Mary’s is averaging 79 PPG, shooting over 53% from the floor, including knocking down an average of 10 triples per game at a 45% clip. With a 19.2/9.6 assist/TO margin, you can see why this is one of the smoothest running, most efficient offenses in the land! But, the Gaels have outstanding balance as well with a defense allowing just 58 points per game on 39% shooting. It is that kind of fundamental statistical profile that wins a lot of basketball games. The Zags now have the bigger name, but the Gaels are the better team!

I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me with my NCAA basketball pick on the St. Mary’s Gaels tonight's game in Moraga.

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