Lay The Points On North Carolina In ACC Clash At Virginia

North Carolina Tarheels players

Jay Pryce

Monday, February 27, 2017 3:39 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 27, 2017 3:39 PM GMT

North Carolina is in control of the ACC as they travel to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers Monday night. Check out why we're laying the points with this pick.

North Carolina Tarheels (25-5 SU, 16-13 ATS)

North Carolina will need a win at the always-tough John Paul Jones Arena to earn a No.-1 regional seed for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Motivation, check. Head coach Roy Williams and company walloped UVA 65-41 just nine days ago at Dean Smith Center. Confidence, check. But they'll have to reverse their recent fortunes in Charlottesville. UNC has lost its last three visits—though it tipped off underdogs in each—and hasn’t covered a spread since 2008. Monday night's result: to be determined.

The Tar Heels put up a ton of points. Everyone knows that. Their 85.8 per game ranks sixth most nationally. The defense, however, is what has UNC becoming one of the top three favorites to rule March Madness. The unit is allowing 61.0 points per game in its last four, holding opponents 11 points on average below their projected team total. UVA shot a dismal 27 percent from the field in its loss during this stretch.

 

Virginia Cavaliers (19-9 SU, 15-11 ATS)

UVA needed a blowout win in a big way, and got it last time out, routing N.C. State 70-55 in Raleigh on Saturday. Prior to the victory, the Wahoos lost four straight, including three favored by 5-points or better.

The Cavs play the shot clock better than any team in the country. This is head coach Tony Bennett's modus operandi. The team ranks dead last in tempo nationally. This causes fits for teams like the Tar Heels that like to get up and down the court at pace. UVA's defense ranks first in the nation in efficiency as well.

Where the team struggles compared to last year is on offense. The squad is starving for a scorer outside of senior guard London Perrantes. Perrantes leads the group with 12.4 points per game, and is the only player averaging double digits. One weapon is hardly enough to overtake UNC. Since 2015, the Tar Heels are 34-0 SU and 21-11-1 ATS when holding foes to 70 points or less in a contest. The Cavs have out up more than 63 points once in eight games as underdogs during this stretch. UVA will have to flip the script to earn a victory here.

 

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers

North Carolina's 58.7 percent total rebound rate is No. 1 nationally. Bad news for Virginia. Playing at such a slow pace, every possession is critical for the Cavaliers. Tall teams that take away extra scoring chances are Bennett's kryptonite. Since taking over in Charlottesville, Bennett is 17-31-2 ATS when out rebounded at home. The Cavs are 0-3 ATS this season when beaten on the boards, losing to the number by more than 11 points per game. UNC has faced four teams on the road averaging 34.5 rebounds or more per game entering a contest, they've lost each outright. UVA's 29.8 average is the lowest for the Tar Heels to date. UNC rebounds their way to a win and a cover.

 Free NCAAB Picks: North Carolina -3.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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