Late Breaking Conference Tourney Match Ups With O/U Value

Mark Lathrop

Friday, March 11, 2016 4:47 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 11, 2016 4:47 PM UTC

Our NCAAB handicapper spots some conference tournament value, in games that should produce higher possessions and attempts than average. Get our NCAA basketball picks inside.

Illinois vs. Purdue 
The 13th ranked Purdue Boilermakers (24-7, 12-6) can ill afford another upset to the Illinois Fighting Illini (15-18, 5-13) in the Big Ten Conference tournament if they are to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA tourney. The first game went the Illini’s way as they shocked the Boilermakers in an 84-70 win as a 9-5-point home underdog back in January. That game also went way over the consensus total of 140. In this game the ranked Boilermakers are an 11-point favorite with the revenge factor fully in play. The O/U bar has come in slightly lower, with the line opening up at 139 on the NCAA basketball odds board.

In that first game, it was the Illini shooting well over their season average of 43.3% that led them to the win. The underdog team shot 54.2% from the floor and also 52.9% from 3-point range. While that is unlikely to happen again, it is worth noting that in every game Illinois has cleared 70-points in the last thirteen the total has cashed on the over. They won’t have to be close to the performance they put up in January for the over to have value in this game.

For Purdue’s sake, they have been very hot on offense of late, and have had their games go over the total in four straight – going 3-1 SU in the process. They are going to match up against a tired Illinois team coming off of a game yesterday in the opener of the Big Ten tournament, which I think bodes well for scoring on their end. Add to that the fact that Illinois is very hot from 3-point range in their last two games so they will be looking for shots outside the arc. This should lead to early shot clock attempts for the Illini that could increase the amount of possessions each teams have. Back the Purdue over trend in this game, and take Over 139 at BookMaker here as one of your Friday NCAAB totals picks.

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Over 139
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Notre Dame vs. North Carolina 
While the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-10, 11-7) and North Carolina Tar Heels (26-6, 14-4) tickets are punched for the big dance, they still have the ACC tournament to play for and a chance at higher seeding in the tournament. It was Notre Dame that upset the Tar Heels at home in February as 2.5-point home underdogs, winning by a score of 80-76. That game wen under the consensus total of 163 as the Irish covered the spread. In this game, the line opened at 157 before quickly being bet up to 158.5 at books such as 5Dimes. This game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Although that game went under the listed total, there are peculiar statistics that suggest the pace at which these teams play each other could produce a higher score. Notre Dame scored 80 points in that first game while shooting just 34.8% from the floor. They were also awful from 3-point range, going 3-16, which is good for a 18.7% rate. Those percentages are much lower than their season averages of 47.5% from the floor and 37.3% from behind the arc.

That last game has more possessions and attempts than the matchup in 2015, where the score was a 90-82 Notre Dame upset. Look for the scoring percentages to rebound back to average here, and with the high pace in which these teams play, take Over 158 at Heritage as one of your NCAA baketball picks

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Over 158.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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