Kentucky vs. LSU: Betting 'Over' as NCAA Basketball Pick for This SEC Matchup Proven Successful

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, February 10, 2015 1:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2015 1:07 PM UTC

LSU likes to push the basketball offensively, which will lead to the ‘Over’ cashing in its biggest game of the year against Kentucky in Baton Rouge Tuesday night.

Dictate Play
LSU ranks 18th in the country in terms of average possession length, which is important to consider when making your college basketball picks, as it wants to dictate play on that end of the floor before Kentucky is able to settle into its stifling half-court defense.

All three meetings in this Southeastern Conference rivalry went OVER the posted total in 2013-14, including an 87-82 Tigers’ victory over the Wildcats as three-point home underdogs on Jan. 18, with both teams combining for 136 shots, which you should consider when looking over the college basketball odds.

It’s also important to point out that the team gets its shot blocked just 7.3 percent of the time offensively, while its opponent leads the nation in rejections due to occupying the top spot in terms of effective height.


Emptying the Bench
Kentucky won’t mind a faster pace due to its two-platoon system implemented by head coach John Calipari, as its top 10 available players average between 10.1 and 26.0 minutes per game.

The Wildcats have had eight different players lead the squad in scoring through 23 games, while their top seven playmakers average between 7.5 and 11.5 points a contest.

Aaron Harrison and Karl-Anthony Towns are the two main players to watch at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center, as they scored 42 of the Wildcats’ 68 points in their most recent win over Florida last Saturday night.


Getting Inside
Forwards Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey won’t shy away from the challenge of scoring in the paint against the betting favorites to win the 2015 NCAA Tournament, as they’ve tallied a combined 23 double-doubles on the year.

Mickey leads all major conference players in registering seven games of scoring 20-plus points and grabbing 10-plus rebounds, while Martin has scored in double figures 12 times in conference play since arriving on campus last year.

LSU trails just 87 teams in shooting 50.1 percent from inside the arc, but it needs to find its offensive touch early on, as Kentucky allows foes to knock down just 36.6 percent of its shots from that area.


On the Road
The Wildcats will be playing back-to-back true road games for just the second time this season, as they earned a 69-53 victory over the Missouri Tigers as 17.5-point favorites to finish out their first occurrence—going OVER the betting total of 121 in the process.

In watching some recent player interviews, Kentucky’s youthful roster is starting to hint that it’s fighting fatigue, which means its normal defensive intensity may be missing in this affair.

Sports bettors will find this to be true due to the Wildcats being 0-2 ATS and the OVER cashing both times in the month of February.  


The OVER is 15-4 in the Tigers’ last 19 opportunities as an underdog with a betting total available in the marketplace, while the Wildcats have gone above the number in their last four SEC contests.

NCAA Basketball Pick:  Over 131 at Pinnacle

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