Kentucky vs. Louisville Prediction & Odds Tonight: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 11
My Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction sets the stage for an epic ranked non-conference matchup between in-state rivals.
No. 9 Kentucky (2-0) and No. 12 Louisville (2-0) will face off at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky., on Tuesday, with tipoff set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Louisville is a 6.5-point betting favorite in the Battle of Bluegrass, but Kentucky has a 40-17 advantage in the all-time series.
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🏀 Kentucky vs. Louisville preview & score prediction
A rivalry game on the road this early in the season is no simple task, but Kentucky has a chance to deliver a statement as a 6.5-point underdog. The Wildcats are currently the top-ranked team on KenPom, climbing two spots since the start of the season.
Will the Wildcats deliver a statement?
I’m skeptical that Kentucky is the best team in college basketball, but KenPom’s metrics indicate that is the case at this point in the season. The Wildcats have defeated Nicholls and Valparaiso by a combined 74 points, propelling them from No. 3 overall to No. 1 in the nation.
The reason that matters is that the betting line doesn’t reflect it. This line has moved in Louisville’s favor since opening at -3, despite KenPom’s projection of an 84-83 decision in favor of the home team.
Betting lines typically follow KenPom’s projection, so I think there is value in taking the points with the better team as long as the spread is +6 or higher.
Even EvanMiya’s projections (which adjust for injuries and home-court advantage) make this line -4.7.
Additionally, this is a significant test for Louisville. The Cardinals have won their two games by a combined 95 points but lost to Kansas in an exhibition contest at home. I need Pat Kelsey’s team to prove it before I’m willing to lay a two-possession spread.
Score prediction: Louisville 86, Kentucky 82
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🆚 Kentucky vs. Louisville matchup to watch
Mikel Brown Jr. vs. Kentucky backcourt
Louisville point guard Mikel Brown Jr. is another talented player from this year’s freshman class. He’s off to a strong start in his debut season as a facilitator, ranking eighth in the nation in assist rate (52.8%).
Brown has dished out 15 assists through two games, clearing his assists prop (5.5) in both matchups. He now faces a Kentucky team that ranks 228th in the nation in assist rate allowed (57.1%), highlighting the inexperience of its backcourt.
For the Cardinals to win this game, they need Brown to have a big night.
Best prop bet: Mikel Brown Jr. Over 5.5 assists (+115 via BetMGM)
Our Mike Spector has more plays worth tailing in his college basketball best bets tonight, including a four-star player prop on Louisville guard Ryan Conwell.
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📺 How to watch Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Date: Tuesday, Nov. 11
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, Ky.)
- TV: ESPN
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