Kansas vs. TCU NCAA Basketball Picks: Expecting Low Scoring Game

Kevin Stott

Saturday, February 6, 2016 11:40 AM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 6, 2016 11:40 AM UTC

Perry Ellis and #7-ranked Kansas pay a visit to Waco, Texas and the Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena early Saturday afternoon to face TCU in a Big 12 meeting. Let's review the NCAA Basketball Odds.

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Final Score Prediction: Kansas 75  TCU 62
NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 143 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Kansas vs.TCU
This early Saturday Big 12 meeting sees #7-ranked Kansas (18-4, 6-3 Big 12) traveling to Waco, Texas and the Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena to face TCU (10-12, 1-8 Big 12) in a Big 12 mismatch from the Lone State State where the cattle can smell the barbecue cooking but don’t know that it’s them who are on the menu. NCAA Basketball Odds makers have opened up Kansas as 12-point favorites (-115, Bookmaker) with the Total (Points) here set at 143 (Bookmaker) and even though TCU has held its own and covered against the Jayhawks of late and that this game 9in is Waco, the Point Spread is right where it should be.


Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas (12-8-0 ATS, 8-12 O/U) and Head Coach Bill Self are highly ranked, but just 4-3 SU over their L7 games (Losses at West Virginia, at Oklahoma State and at Iowa State), a testament to how rugged the Big 12 Conference is this particular season. In their last game against in-state rival Kansas State, the Jayhawks defeated the Wildcats, 77-59 (KS -11½, 144) as Perry Ellis scored 19 points and Svi Mykhailiuk and Devonte Graham added 10 points apiece. Kansas Starters F Landen Lucas (8 points), G Frank Mason III (8 points) and G Wayne Selden Jr. (7 points) combined for 23 and the Jayhawks Bench had 25 in a game in which they were badly outrebounded but Kansas was red-hot from the field, shooting a blistering 55.1% (27-for-49) in the victory and that was the ultimate difference. Ellis (16.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Kansas (12/1 to win NCAA Championship, Ladbrokes) have covered the L2 games after L5 straight ATS, all in Big 12 Conference play. F Hunter Mickelson (Ankle) is listed as Questionable for this game.


TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs (7-9 ATS in Big 12, 5-11 O/U) and 3rd-year Head Coach Trent Johnson have notched just one win in Big 12 Conference play so far—at Home vs Texas, 58-57 on Jan. 26—and the former MWC (Mountain West Conference) school may have improved conferences with the move but have put themselves in a precarious position in Men’s Basketball with so many great schools already in the Big 12. In their last game, the Horned Frogs faced one of those “great” schools, #1-ranked Oklahoma and it was that potential superstar-in-the-making Buddy Hield (17 points) and the Sooners who were victorious in Norman, 95-72 (KS -20, 145). In the Loss, TCU was led by starters, F Chris Washburn (15 points) and Malique Trent (12 points) while F Vladimir Brodziansky (17 points, 8 rebounds) shined off the Horned Frogs Bench. TCU has L6 of its L7 SU and Trent (11.5 ppg, 2.9 apg) and the host Horned Frogs should get beat by Kansas by double-digits here, with the Final Score being the only real question. TCU G Kenrich Williams (Knee) is Out for the Season.


Best Betting Approaches and Series Trends
In this series, TCU has W4 in a row ATS, including this season’s first meeting in Lawrence, Kansas where the Horned Frogs easily covered, getting a whopping 22½ points in a 70-63 loss (Total 147). The Horned Frogs are 7-3 ATS in the L10 in this series, but Kansas has W7 SU in this series and the Jayhawks are 9-1 SU in those 10 meetings which date back to a time when TCU was still a member of the MWC. The Under is 6-2 ATS in both Kansas and TCU’s L8 games and both teams have been distinct Under teams so far this season with the Horned Frogs Totals Record at 5-11 (O/U) heading in here and the Jayhawks Totals mark at 8-12 (O/U). Shepherd (6.0 rpg) and TCU (#138 in Ken Pomeroy Basketball rankings) have played Kansas really close the L4 games, losing by only 7, 5, 9 and 3 points, so whatever it is, Mason III (4.7 apg) and Kansas (#11 in Ken Pomeroy Basketball rankings) have struggled with the Horned Frogs lately with three of those 4 game going Under the Total. 

Expect host TCU to try to slow the game down to try to beat a team it knows it is always going to be outmanned against, and that strategy has almost worked in terms of upsetting the always-ranked Kansas Jayhawks and has resulted in the Underdog being the profitable play in this series of late. The Under is 5-4-1 in the L10 in this series with the usually high-scoring Jayhawks (83.7 AA-69.5 AA) being held to 70, 64, 81 and 64 points in the L4 meetings—the L3 all in Lawrence. So Johnson and TCU will likely employ the same slow-down tactic here at the Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, making the Under probably the safest NCAA Basketball Pick in this one which on paper (or your mobile device or PC) appears like it should be a blowout.

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