Impressive Strategy to Apply to NCAA Basketball Picks: Fade the 'Homeless'

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, April 7, 2015 11:08 AM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 7, 2015 11:08 AM GMT

After years of monitoring the NCAA Basketball odds & analyzing trends, this handicapper has found an extremely profitable betting system which he refers to as 'Fading the Homeless.'

College hoops provide the biggest home court advantage of any of the major sports.  The value of a home court can range anywhere from 1 to 8 points.  Yet, the odds makers normally confine this value to a more modest 3 to 5 point edge.  In my article last week entitled “2015 CBKB Undefeated Homers,” I pointed out the value of a supportive home crowd.  There is clearly a larger fan base and more vocal crowd support, when the home team is undefeated on their home court.  Every highlight reel play is met with overwhelming vocal support.  It not only provides positive momentum for the home team, but also has a deflating psychological effect on the visiting team.  This can be observed every night by tuning into any of the myriad of games that are offered on national TV.  As always, the proof is in the pudding!  That is why the 87-41 ATS home mark of undefeated homers to -11 ½ is so impressive.  In today’s article, we go to the opposite end of the spectrum to see how CBKB home teams do when they win 50% or less of their games on their home court.  The results will amaze you! 

More Tips on How to Identify Value in College Basketball Home Underdogs

The chart below shows the records of the 36 teams, whose SU record on their home court is .500 or worse.   Results are through Sunday, February 8th with all ATS records calculated against the opening line.  After presenting the chart, I will offer the conclusions you can apply directly to your NCAA Basketball Picks.   

 

TEAM

SU HOME

ATS HOME

HOME FAV

PICK or HOME DOG

Arkansas St.

3-7

3-5

2-5

1-0

Austin Peay

5-6

3-4

1-2

2-2

Cal Northridge

4-8

1-7

0-3

1-4

Charleston

4-7

2-6

0-4

2-2

Delaware

4-6

4-4

2-1

2-3

Duquesne

6-6

3-1

0-0

3-1

Fairfield

3-10

4-7

1-2

3-5

Fordham

6-7

4-3

0-0

4-3

Idaho St.

4-5

3-3

1-0

2-3

Illinois-Chi

5-7

5-4

1-1

4-3

IUPUI

4-6

4-6

1-1

3-5

LOY-Marymount

5-7

4-5

1-2

3-3

Marist

2-6

3-4

1-0

2-4

Missouri

6-7

5-8

2-4

3-4

Montana St.

4-7

3-6

1-1

2-5

Morehead St.

5-6

3-5

3-3

0-2

Nevada

5-6

4-5

3-2

1-3

Niagara

3-8

3-6

0-3

3-3

NC Greensboro

4-8

1-7

0-2

1-5

N. Dakota

3-4

1-4

1-2

0-2

Pacific

5-7

2-8

1-4

1-4

Penn

3-6

4-3

1-1

3-2

Rice

5-5

3-3

1-2

2-1

Rutgers

6-7

3-6

1-3

2-3

San Francisco

6-7

4-6

3-5

1-1

San Jose

2-9

3-4

0-0

3-4

St. Peters

5-6

2-7

1-7

1-0

S. Alabama

5-7

4-3

1-0

3-3

S. Florida

6-7

2-7

1-2

1-5

S. Mississippi

5-6

2-7

1-3

1-4

S. Utah

4-5

3-2

1-1

2-1

Tennessee St.

5-6

3-3

0-0

3-3

Troy

5-5

2-5

0-3

2-2

USC

6-6

5-6

3-3

2-3

VMI

5-5

4-4

2-3

2-1

Youngstown St.

6-6

1-5

1-0

0-5

 

I will save you the trouble of adding up all these numbers!  Let me tell you that by playing against these “Homeless” teams, each time they suit up on their home court, you would be 179-110 ATS (61.9%) plus 58 net units of profit.  That means $100 players are up $5,800 using this system, while dime players would have profited plus $58,000.  If that amount of profit at a 62% winning clip is not good enough for you, I have better news!  If you chose to only fade these “Homeless” teams in the role of home favorite, you would be 75-39 ATS (65.8%).  Figure out how much money you would have won with 66% winners on over 100 games.

Combined with the “Undefeated Homer” article of last week, this “Homeless” article points out the huge divergence in home court values that are not in the betting line.  With 43% of the college basketball games falling within 5 points of the opening line and all games falling within less than 8 points of the opening NCAA Basketball odds number, you can see why the hidden value in home court advantages or disadvantages are an integral part of successful college basketball handicapping.

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