Hump Day (Under)Dogs: Texas A&M, Eastern Illinois are Money

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, February 28, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

It's another Wednesday during the college hoops season and you know what that means. Time to investigate and find a pair of underdogs that can beat the spread.

Wednesday College Basketball: Hump Day (Under)Dogs

All season long we have enjoyed great success with a 19-9 record (67.8 percent), so let's see if we can beat the college basketball odds one more time and engineer another sweep. Today's choices with our NCAAB picks will take us into the SEC and the opening night of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. Let's explain why we like these two pooches.

Texas A&M vs. GeorgiaFree NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M +1Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Aggies Win Handily If They Rebound

If you need evidence of how crazy the SEC has been all year, you can use Tuesday night as an example. Inconsistent teams such as Missouri and Florida won going away on the road. Tennessee destroyed host Mississippi State. And Auburn has been caught by Tennessee for the top spot in the conference after losing at Arkansas.

Texas A&M (18-11, 12-14 ATS) and Georgia (16-12, 13-12 ATS) fit right in the mix of teams that can win or lose on any given day for no apparent reason.

The Aggies were one of the best five teams in the country in November, slipped back because of injuries and have been up and down since. The Bulldogs are capable of impressive victories and frustrating losses week to week and you just never know how they might perform.

For this matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network), we are not exactly going out on a limb with our NCAAB picks by taking Texas A&M as a one-point road underdog on the college basketball odds board. Nevertheless, the Aggies are not always trustworthy. The Aggies have great size and an impressive frontcourt, and have a +6 rebound margin on the year. But in their past three contests, in which they are 1-2 SU and ATS, they have a hard-to-fathom -26 rebound differential. This is ridiculous and points to lack of effort. If Texas A&M wants an NCAA tourney bid, they win this game.

Eastern Illinois vs. Tennessee StateFree NCAAB Pick: Eastern Illinois +2.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

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Betting Theory Put To Test

Evansville, Indiana, will be the host of this year's Ohio Valley Conference tourney, and the second game of the night is No. 6 seed Tennessee State (15-14, 10-12-1 ATS ) vs. No. 7 seed Eastern Illinois (11-18, 10-17 ATS).

Tennessee State won each encounter this season over the Panthers, but both were close. The Tigers won 69-65 on the road as two-point underdogs, and took the second game 50-47 as a five-point home favorite.

Both squads are mediocre shooting clubs at just more than 42 percent. Over the years in conference tournaments, teams that had lost both regular-season meetings by five points or less cover the spread about 63 percent of the time. Tennessee State is on a 0-3 SU and ATS slide, failing to shoot more than 40 percent in any of those defeats, so backing Eastern Illinois at +2.5 points on the college hoops odds board offers some value with your NCAAB picks.

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