How About a Little Parlay Action on ASU-Washington?

Rainman M.

Thursday, February 1, 2018 12:53 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018 12:53 PM UTC

Washington (15-6) hosts No. 25 Arizona State (16-5) tonight at 11 ET. Read on for this capper's breakdown of some trends that will make bettors want to stay up for this Pac-12 matchup.

No. 25 Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington HuskiesFree NCAAB Picks: Washington +3.5 and 'Under' 156.5Best Lines Offered: Bookmaker

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The Sun Devils, who just signed head coach Bobby Hurley to a five-year contract extension, were once 12-0 and ranked third. Since they started conference play, they are 4-5 SU and 1-6-2 ATS. The biggest factor in their decline has been offensive mediocrity. While undefeated, they scored 90+ points 9 times, including against strong teams like Xavier and Kansas. Since they began conference play, they have yet to eclipse 80 points in regulation.

Arizona State's top scorers are guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans with 19.3 and 16.7 points per game, respectively. Both rank in the top 400 in three-point percentage and assist rate. Both also excel at drawing fouls and complete over 80% of their free throws. Center Romello White is the best Sun Devil at drawing fouls. He ranks 29th in the category. White and backup De'Quon Lake are solid rebounders who are also effective at scoring inside. Both rank in the top 60 in offensive rebounding percentage and in the top 100 in two-point shooting percentage.

The Huskies, in their first year under former Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins, were initially a defensive disaster, most notably giving up 103 points to Virginia Tech. In conference play, they have allowed over 74 points just once. Shooting guard Jaylen Nowell takes the largest percentage of shots for UW and leads with 16.7 points per game. Point guard David Crisp leads the team in minutes. Like Nowell, he is strong at scoring inside the arc. He takes about half his shots from three, though, and his shooting percentage behind the arc is less than half of what it was last year during conference play.

Center Noah Dickerson is involved in the largest percentage of possessions. He is second on UW with 14.2 points per game and 7.8 rebounds per game. He ranks 371st in two-point shooting percentage. Small forward Matisse Thybulle is the fourth Husky averaging double figures. He is slowly building up his three-point percentage to where it was last season by going 6-for-9 from three in the past two games.

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The Verdict

Arizona State is coming off a victory against Colorado but has yet to win back-to-back Pac-12 games. It also has lost four conference games SU when favored. ASU also has yet to cover a conference road game in five tries. So situationally, the Sun Devils are in a strong fade position.

The declining ASU offense and the improving UW defense speak for an 'under.' The 'under' is 3-0 in three conference home games for UW. The 'under' has hit in seven straight UW games. Washington should be able to eliminate ASU's offensive strength as Arizona State relies heavily on the three, ranking 93rd in proportion of threes attempted. ASU's three-point ranking has sunk to seventh in conference play, while UW is first in opposing three-point percentage. Washington top-ranked Pac-12 defense, according to KenPom's efficiency rankings, will be crucial for the cover and the 'under.'

ASU backers will want to suggest that UW's offense matches up terribly against ASU's zone defense. The effectiveness of ASU's defense is largely reliant on the energy from its home crowd. On the road, ASU defensive rankings drop about 100 spots to 214th in opposing three-point percentage and likewise to 229th in opposing field-goal percentage. UW's in-form guards and big men will do enough to cover on our NCAAB Picks.

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