Hot Home Team & 'Over' The NCAA Basketball Picks In Purdue vs. Iowa Big Ten Clash

Kevin Stott

Sunday, January 24, 2016 3:10 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 24, 2016 3:10 PM UTC

The #9-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes play host to #22-ranked Purdue. Let’s dive in, see what we find about this weekend Big Ten showdown and provide a sharp NCAA basketball pick.

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Final Score Prediction: Iowa 80 Purdue 73
Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Iowa -3½ ; Over 145
Best Lines Offered: at Heritageat Bookmaker


Odds Overview
Purdue at Iowa: Jarrod Uthoff and #9-ranked Iowa (15-3, 6-0 Big Ten) plays host to #22-ranked Purdue (17-3, 5-2 Big Ten) at Hawkeye-Carver Arena in Iowa City on Sunday afternoon in a somewhat important early Big Ten conference showdown between two teams currently ranked in the AP’s Top 25. Offshore NCAA basketball odds boards have opened up this game (late Saturday) with host Iowa as 4-point favorites (Bookmaker) with Heritage offering a 3½ -113 with the Total (Points) for this game set at 145 (Bookmaker).


Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue Boilermakers (11-5 ATS, 7-9 O/U) and Head Coach Matt Painter are making some noise nationally and are also making their backers some money at the betting window with that impressive 11-5 ATS record (68.8%) and are on a modest 3-game Win Streak heading in here against the Hawkeyes with Losses only to Butler, Illinois and this Iowa team so far this season. In that loss at West Lafayette in the first meeting this season, it was really a tale of two halves as Purdue raced out to 37-20 lead at Halftime and were looking great against the then-unranked Hawkeyes team before Iowa exploded to a 50-26 2nd Half and earned a 70-63 win. So it’s either a matter of Revenge from Purdue’s perspective here or a matter of What Did We Learn? from Iowa’s perspective after that nice little comeback in the Hoosier State. The Boilermakers only had two players in double-digits (scoring) in that first meeting and they were both off the Bench (C AJ Hammons, 11 points and G Kendall Stephens, 12 points) as the Starting 5 only totaled 24 points and was just 9-for-27 shooting from the Field (33.3%). Or, not very good. Purdue (40/1 to win NCAA Championship, Coral) will both need the starters to contribute much more here as well as to forget that horrid 2nd Half and not let the Home Iowa City crowd get to them to have a chance here, and the way Iowa looked on Thursday night at Rutgers, barely getting by as 22½-point monster chalks, means this one could go down to the wire, with the Home-court Advantage possibly playing a very big part in the end.


Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa (9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U) and Head Coach Fran McCaffery may be a Top 20 team when all is said and done, but the way the Hawkeyes looked in Piscataway, New Jersey on Thursday night against lowly Rutgers makes it hard to believe that this is the 13th best team in the land. The Hawkeyes have W8 straight heading in here and are undefeated at Home at Hawkeye-Carver Arena (9-0) and against Rutgers, G Peter Jok (29 points), F Jarrod Uthoff (20 points) and G Anthony Clemmons (20 points) all had big scoring nights while the other two starters C Adam Woodbury (12 points) and G Mike Gesell (0 points) but the team played a little lazy from the start and kept the Scarlet Knights in the game most of the way in an effort which was less than spectacular defensively, although Iowa did play much better in the 2nd Half. In that first meeting at Purdue, the Hawkeyes were led by Uthoff (25 points) and Jok (11 points) while starters Woodbury (6 points, 7 rebounds), Clemmons (8 points) and Gesell (7 points) as well as F Nichola Baer (7 points) and F Dom Uhl (6 points) off the Bench. To beat Purdue here, Iowa (50/1 to win National Championship, Ladbrokes) will need a big effort from its Bench and to get the crowd into the game as early as possible, which shouldn’t be too hard in this particular situation. And there’s no doubt that Iowa will start off this game better than they did at Rutgers.


Best Betting Approaches and Some Recent Series Trends
Iowa and Uthoff (18.8 ppg) have W8 straight and is undefeated here at Home (9-0) so this could be a tough game for Purdue, especially if McCaffery gets on his boys for some of their sporadic play against Rutgers in their last outing. The Trends here show this series split at 5-5 ATS over the L10 meetings with the Under a pretty strong 7-3 ATS. The Under is also 9-4 ATS in Purdue’s L13 games on the Road but the Over is 9-2 ATS the L11 Iowa games played on a Sunday. The Boilermakers and Swanigan (9.0 rpg) are an impressive 10-2 ATS their L12 on the Road and Purdue is a strong 36-16 ATS in their L52 games overall (69.2%). Iowa and Gesell (7.0 apg) are 9-3-1 ATS in its L13 overall against Big Ten opponents while the Hawkeyes are 7-3 ATS their L10 games scheduled on a Sunday. Whoopty doo. The Home team is 10-3 ATS in the L13 meetings—despite the Hawkeyes’ comeback Win (and ATS cover) in the first meeting this season—and the Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings. Iowa (79.5 AF-61.0 AA) and Woodbury (6.6 rpg) have covered 3 of the L4 meetings against Purdue (81.6 AF-67.8 AA) and Hammonds (13.5 ppg) here at Home at Hawkeye-Carver Arena although the Boilermakers (6-4 SU L10 in series) did cover getting 15 points last season here in a 83-76 Iowa win. Yet, we are adding Iowa to our NCAA basketball picks.


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