Home & Road Disparity Makes UCLA The NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Oregon

Charles Stark

Wednesday, March 2, 2016 1:13 AM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 2, 2016 1:13 AM GMT

UCLA has an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent and get some revenge when they take on Oregon at home. Will UCLA get some momentum, or will Oregon continue its march to the Pac-12 championship? Let's study the March Madness odds.

Betting Odds
Oddsmakers have come out making UCLA a +2 underdog on the NCAA Basketball odds board, like at Bookmaker -110. There is a reason why this number is so small when considering the difference in league standings between these two teams. For my March Madness pick tonight I will back UCLA to get it done at home where they play much better than on the road.

 

Oregon Ducks
Oregon averages 77.6 points per game and is one of the best scoring teams in the PAC 12, but they allow opponents to shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc which ranks in the bottom of the country. It has definitely been a resurgent year for the Oregon Ducks and they are in really good position to win the PAC 12 championship. However, they don't have an easy test on the road tonight or in their next game at USC. Last time out against UCLA they won going away winning by 14 solidified by a strong first half leading the Bruins by 10 at the break.

As mentioned above they don't defend from distance very well and in that game against UCLA they allowed the Bruins, despite the win, to shoot 50% from beyond the arc. That could be a point of contention tonight because both Isaac Hamilton and Bryce Alford can shoot the three. As well, Oregon like most NCAA teams is not simply as deadly offensively on the road as they are at home. While Oregon is extremely good on their home court averaging 80.2 points per contest on the road that drops to just over 73 points per game.

 

UCLA Bruins
UCLA averages 77.9 points per game and rank 15th and 12th in the country in field goals attempted and made per game respectively. Offensively there hasn't really been any problems with the Bruins this season especially at home. On the road they have struggled at times averaging only 74.7 points per game which is quite a change from when they play in Pauley Pavilion where they average 81 points per game. They are a solid home team with only three home losses on the season which include a bad loss to USC, a team that has their number, and two other losses to Washington and Utah by a combined four points.

Defensively they have not been very good this season but the difference of how well they play at home is significant. On the season UCLA has allowed opponents to score just over 80 points per game on the road compared to allowing just under 72 points at home. This a good spot for UCLA to pull off the small upset but I will grab the points at +2 March Madness odds.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: UCLA +2
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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