Home/Away Trends Suggest Backing Oregon -22 With Your NCAA Basketball Picks vs. Arkansas State

David Lawrence

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 6:33 PM GMT

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Oregon Ducks have two common opponents early in the season, even though they hail from different conferences and different corners of the country. Find out about that and other details before Wednesday night’s game.

Momentum
The Red Wolves stumbled out of the gate, losing to SIU-Edwardsville and then Savannah State before winning against Jackson State. ASU should be defeating teams from even less visible and challenging conferences than the Sun Belt, but the Red Wolves just haven’t found a lot of continuity on their roster this season. The win over Jackson State marked a step in the right direction, and it’s worth considering how much value that win will have going into this game against Oregon.

The Ducks also beat Jackson State, but they did so by a noticeably bigger margin than Arkansas State did. That alone is reason to hold the Ducks in higher regard than Arkansas State. Then there’s another reason: Oregon won that game without Villanova transfer Dylan Ennis, who will be mentioned in the injury report below. Ennis was supposed to be a major part of the Ducks’ efforts this season, but he’s going to sit out this game as well, and he hasn’t been an active participant in the season to this point. Therefore, what will be mentioned next is that much more worthy of praise: The Ducks are 4-0 and look really good.

In addition to the win over Jackson State, Oregon has beaten a second team which played Arkansas State. The Red Wolves, as mentioned above, lost to Savannah State. Oregon beat SSU by a 77-59 count. Oregon’s offense has scored at least 73 points in every game this season, a very steady and consistent track record even though the season is still young. What’s most impressive about Oregon is that without Ennis, it still beat the Baylor Bears on Nov. 16. Baylor is a likely NCAA tournament team, and Oregon outplayed BU for much of that night. The fact that Oregon plays this game at home should help.

Speaking of that, let’s go to home and away trends:

 

Home-Away Trends
Arkansas State is playing its third road game of the season, having lost the first two against SIU-Edwardsville and Savannah State. Oregon won its first four home games of the season and is playing its fifth home game here. The Ducks clearly enjoy playing in their own building. They have established a good offensive rhythm from playing in Matthew Knight Arena.

 

Injuries
Arkansas State guard Connor Kern is probable for this game with a knee injury.

Oregon guard Dylan Ennis, a transfer from Villanova who was expected to make the team go this season, especially on offense, is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Forward Jordan Bell is out with a foot injury.

 

What’s The Pick?
The NCAA Basketball odds for this game opened up with Oregon -21 but it’s crept up a bit as early money trickled in on them at Bookmaker. You can be sure that Oregon should be able to win this game by at least 15 points. It’s not just that the Ducks are good, but that Arkansas State has played very poorly in its two road losses. Take Oregon with your NCAA Basketball picks.

NCAA Basketball Picks: Oregon -22 at BetOnline

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