Tonight’s Wisconsin and Duke title tilt is thought to be tighter than Jessica Simpson’s favorite pair of jeans. Thus, for those generating sports picks, there might be more value in props to consider.
After looking over several sportsbooks NCAA Tournament odds for tonight’s battle, here are my top choices and why they should be profitable.
Wisconsin or Duke to win by 3-6 points (+500 in either situation)
If this were a regular season game, any sage college basketball handicapper would pass on this game, because of how closely anticipated it is and the fact there is little value. More often than not, these types of contests come down to one team or the other leading by a 1-3 points and the trailing team either scores to narrow the margin or they miss, commit an immediate foul and we go to the other end of the floor for free throws.
This will be a likely scenario late in the contest and both teams have very good foul shooters, which could easily take a game from one or two points to 5 or 6 point outcome. I will let you decide who you thinks will win but I like the +500 wager on a final score differential of three to six points.
Total Made 3-Point Shots (O/V 13.5)
The money has mostly been coming in on the UNDER, with the logic of possibly a lower scoring game and nerves affecting shooting. However, when I look at these college basketball odds, I see two fearless coaches who have trained their teams to play their best in the moment.
Wisconsin average seven 3-pointers a game on the season and in this tournament they have been even better at 8.8 per contest. Besides accuracy, another reason they are doing even better is their spacing has been impeccable and if the opposing team hedges the wrong way or doesn’t attack properly off the switch, Bo Ryan’s shooters have made them pay time and again.
Duke also average seven made 3’s behind the arc, but is converting on only 5.8 per game in the tourney. I suspect because of how Wisconsin gets back on defense, a big part of the Blue Devils offense will be the secondary transition offense, where the ball-handler will attempt to drive towards the basket and if closed off, seek teammates who have run to spots or in trail position and feed them the ball for more open looks behind the line. Coming off a 2-10 shooting effort against Michigan State, look for Duke to be in the 7-to-9 range on trey’s and this goes OVER with ease with NCAA Tournament picks.
Frank Kaminsky Free Throw Attempts (O/U 4.5)
No question part of Bo Ryan’s game plan will be to feed Kaminsky not only to score but pick up fouls on Jahlil Okafor. Though has been quite a whiner about getting even more fouls, I think he will be at the line for six or more attempts no problems and this OVER play will crush the college basketball odds.
Tyus Jones Total Points (O/U 10.5)
It is a given Okafor and Justise Winslow will need stellar performances if Duke is to win. In these instances a third-scorer has to emerge and all season when Coach K needed big buckets, it has been Tyus Jones who delivered either by penetration or with jump shots. This freshman has displayed uncommon cool and with is speed and quickness edges, he should ring up a dozen or more points.
First Made Basket (2-point -200, other +160)
Because of the nature of the game, I would imagine the first few trips for both teams will be set plays designed to go to the basket and shake off the nerves and create some level of contact instead of hoisting a three-ball. Lay the -200 here.